7/19 Saratoga races 7 and 8

[Bill Lyster]

21 POINTS SO look at late. The best late horses are 5-8-6. The best early horses are 1-8-9, so when the 2nd early horse who is also late, wins it really was 2nd late as opposed to the 2, which is L2 on the NP graph.

The 8 is 2nd best on the TPR screen and the top three are the only horses within 5 pts of the top.




The 2 has a TPR of 172.5 which is about 3 pts below the top 5 cutoff and should not be considered for either top two spots



But the 6 and 9 are 4th and 5th in TPR. and are more than 5 pts from the best TPR horse the 5. The 8 is 2nd best late on the LPR screen as well as 2nd best early on the EPR screen.




The NP screen early chooses 1 and 8 because the 4 and 9, both early are outrun by the 1 E horse and the 8 Presser horse. Here are the prices. Both the 8 and 1 were 6 and 7 to one.

[Bill Lyster]

This race will show the power of Trackmaster speed ratings for foreign horses and how important sustained or late is in turf races.

The Rx+ screen:
It turns out that the top 3 finishers are top 3 PL. the winner had a PL rank of 3, and also garnered a CR+ rating of 4.

The races has 17 speed points which is neutral, trending toward late and late is highly biased in turf races.



The segments graph will show the top 3 as the 5-4-7 and all horses without US races will show as 1st on the Segments because of that. Keep in mind the 4 and 7 would be best rated if only US races were considered.



The TPR graph shows the 2 and 7 low in total energy and weak compared to the rest of the field in LPR.



The NP graph shows the 5 and 10 as best late and the 2-4-7 horses as top early, but the 4 and 7 were top rated on Segments. The 2 with the most speed points had the second worst LPR. If the 5 who is labeled Presser, its lowest score of 85 is better than the best number for the 7 and equal to that of the 4, both being 85



the prices were not great, because it was a Chad Brown exacta and maybe, just maybe I am a Chad Brown-o-phile. Not much money to be made, but even a .10 super box covers the bet.

[bet2windo]

Doc quoted in a Follow Up article that turf races over 8f often run lateside and under 8f ran on the earlyside. Depending on the shape of the race. Also, Doc said somewhere that 7.5f could be either sprint or route"neither fish nor fowl".I used 7.5f line in a 8.5 route. There was also a foreign horse.

[see following post for correct screenshots]

[bet2windo]

Here are the screen shots that were intended.