FairGrounds Race of the week mess up

[Houndog]

Although Perfect Sand is the 0.00 MUV horse his rankings other than EP are at or near the bottom. This is one are where I will look at the rankings. THe horse is only 3rd in Paragon A and nowhere Paragon B.

[Houndog]

Richie, what you have shown us in this race is really important. I would have never thought of doing this with pacelines. This is powerful stuff. Using the paceline as you suggested the American Man "VOODOO" line really shows up well. As you said this is way beyond the 5 step approach.

Even though #5 Bright Hall comes out on top, in retrospect I think that 3rd line back at CD is atypical for this horse. All that being said American Man is definitely a win contender. Thanks much for your help on this. I am still learning the Match-Up, and I think it is well worth the effort to learn these concepts the best I can.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Houndog

Richie, what you have shown us in this race is really important. I would have never thought of doing this with pacelines. This is powerful stuff. Using the paceline as you suggested the American Man "VOODOO" line really shows up well. As you said this is way beyond the 5 step approach.

Even though #5 Bright Hall comes out on top, in retrospect I think that 3rd line back at CD is atypical for this horse. All that being said American Man is definitely a win contender. Thanks much for your help on this. I am still learning the Match-Up, and I think it is well worth the effort to learn these concepts the best I can.

Mike,
when u get a chance could you remove that 0.00 Muv guy who has no other corrolary support? Just curious if the winner gets into the paragons and what he looks like on the other screens man


Thanx
Richie

[Houndog]

Richie, first I will show you the Energy Generator with #2 Perfect Sand left in. Will take him out in the Energy Program. Notice the first call Energy Expenditure of 37.20 on this guy. This was off of his last line at the Fairgrounds at the 1mile/40yard distance. I would agree with you that these are some weird clockings at this distance.

[Houndog]

ESP Profile

[Houndog]

Eliminating #2 Perfect Sand

[Houndog]

2 pacelines for the winner #8 American Man. The last line and the "VOODOO LINE".

[Houndog]

The rankings screen.

[Houndog]

The Match-Up EXDC Screen. If you are a 2 horse bettor the winner must be one of your horses. If you are a one horse bettor you have to ask yourself if #5 Bright Hall is too good to be true. I used the 3rd line back on this horse. In retrospect this line is atypical of his usual performances. He did show early speed in his last race, but that was in a field of only 5 horses.

Probably a better line to use for him is the 4th back which is more typical of his running style.

[Houndog]

You might wonder why I am devoting so much time on a race in which the winner paid $8.00. First of all I played the favorite Bright Hall to win and he finished a badly beaten 3rd. Secondly, this illustrates how sensitive Energy is to proper paceline selection. I selected Bright Hall's 4th line back which is more indicative of his typical running style. This makes the race much closer, but these are the calls we must make. If you are a 2 horse bettor you get the winner and the 3rd horse. If you are a one horse bettor it is more problematic. The winner American Man is 3-1 and Bright Hall is 1.80-1.

With the revised pacelines AMVOO (I entered 2 lines for this horse). If you were not following this post from the beginning Richie suggested I try entering a paceline for this horse comprised of American's Man 1st call timing at MNR 7 races back (46.4) and the 2nd and final call of his last race, still using the BL's of the MNR race 1.5-0-0-0. This is an advanced Match-Up procedure that goes beyond the 5 step approach. I am not trying to teach this advanced procedure, but this is something Richie had me try using Energy. What I am really trying to show is how Energy is very dependent on proper contender and paceline selection. (As is the Match-Up).

Anyhow now with the UXR screen we see that one of the pacelines for American Man shows him to be the 0.00 EMUV horse and second in UXR. (Lower numbers are better.) The variegate says sustained.