Kentucky Derby 2022 Discussion - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 05-05-2022, 12:09 PM

I drew myself a picture of Sartin Downs and plotted the position of all entries along the way. It appears to me that a lot of these horses LOVE to run close to the lead, so no matter who leads early is going to be pressed into oblivion. Also pressers who might like to run 3-5 will find several more horses in front of them and the resulting traffic pileup could be huge at the top of the stretch.

From this point of view Tiz the Bomb, Mo Donegal, Zandon, maybe even Crown Pride - not in any order - and all horses who are used to passing bunches of other runners in the course of a race appear to match up against this field pretty well. The ? mark for me is Charge It. He banged the gate last time, recovered and closed when needed to finish second. He is probably one of the front runners if his normal style prevails, but he did prove that he could pass horses, albeit without the best closing kick of the group.

Epicenter might be the best presser who weathered the early traffic jam.

Hey they all have a right to improve, so who knows?

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05-05-2022, 12:09 PM	#18
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	I drew myself a picture of Sartin Downs and plotted the position of all entries along the way. It appears to me that a lot of these horses LOVE to run close to the lead, so no matter who leads early is going to be pressed into oblivion. Also pressers who might like to run 3-5 will find several more horses in front of them and the resulting traffic pileup could be huge at the top of the stretch. From this point of view Tiz the Bomb, Mo Donegal, Zandon, maybe even Crown Pride - not in any order - and all horses who are used to passing bunches of other runners in the course of a race appear to match up against this field pretty well. The ? mark for me is Charge It. He banged the gate last time, recovered and closed when needed to finish second. He is probably one of the front runners if his normal style prevails, but he did prove that he could pass horses, albeit without the best closing kick of the group. Epicenter might be the best presser who weathered the early traffic jam. Hey they all have a right to improve, so who knows?