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Bill V:
When I post selections I am following the format established by Lt1: 4 horses and a LS, if any. I don't think anyone in their right mind bets a pick 4 using all 4 horses in each leg -- they call that kind of betting a "caveman" ticket for a reason.
The skill, as Sartin points out, is selecting your bets from your contenders. 2 horses to win (out of 4), maybe a 3 horse exacta box using the "class" horse underneath, etc.
Since you have mentioned you now eschew win bets in favor of horizontal bets, I am sure you realize that judiciously selecting how many horses to bet in each leg of a pick 4 is where the real skill comes into play. You want to go deep in races that are wide open, and keep the numbers small in races that are predictable.
Also, a smart pick 4 player needs to eliminate tickets that have all 4 races with the longest shot contenders. This cuts down on the cost by eliminating combinations that have a miniscule chance of hitting.
Remember, the only reason to play a horizontal bet is when you think it will pay more than a multirace parlay. Those who want to create pick 4 tickets from the selections posted by Lt1 and myself are better off having 4 horses to choose from in each race, especially in those races that are wide open.
Finally, I post selections so that others can see my contenders if they choose to help them craft their own bets. I am not trying to be a selection service, since I use the tote board to craft own my bets. If I wanted to just post winners I would just post the top 3 ML favorites and be done with it.
Richard
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07-23-2019, 09:12 PM
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