PP Line Selection - Pace and Cap

Mitch44 · 02-12-2019, 03:52 PM

The best Preceptor line should be checked against two things:

1. That the line chosen conforms to the horses normal ESP running style. I'm talking about the computer driven running style from % Med. not the visual style as indicated by RS. These are entirely two different things. A horse can go wire to wire on the lead and not be an Early horse. The % Med is a much more accurate measurement that doesn't fool the eyes and deceive the brain. By clicking on a horses TPR+ E/L tap one can see how a horse normally runs by the blue and red graphs. Within these graphs are contained various styles; Red = E,EP and P, Blue = SP,S and L. Some horses will have all red or all blue but what do we do with a horse that has both? Now here is a key to this, the reason a horse may have both is they tend to only do what they have to in a race. Look at its CPR and Total Energy numbers and choose a graph style that indicates it highest numbers for CPR & Tot. Energy as its preferred and best running style. Then choose a line that conforms to its style as verified by its better CPR and Tot. En. ratings.

2.That the variant for that line isn't taken from an non-normal track variant. The average variant is approximately 17 .They tend to run lower in the west where there is less rain and slower in the east where not only more rain but deeper tracks. Typically variants are normal from 7 to 27. This encompasses 5 lengths
Its not unusual to find variants of 40 to 50 or far below 7, on heavy turf races or frozen tracks. Once these variants get beyond a certain point their accuracy are doubtful at best. Many horses can be gotten by more than one line. To check this is simple, just go to the BLBL screen and click on the original tab and all the variants are shown for the horses and lines chosen. Or it can be done at the time of selecting a line as the variant is shown to the right side.

One and two above are also valid reasons to go past a line in using Sartin guidelines of best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface.

Mitch44

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02-12-2019, 03:52 PM	#11
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	The best Preceptor line should be checked against two things: 1. That the line chosen conforms to the horses normal ESP running style. I'm talking about the computer driven running style from % Med. not the visual style as indicated by RS. These are entirely two different things. A horse can go wire to wire on the lead and not be an Early horse. The % Med is a much more accurate measurement that doesn't fool the eyes and deceive the brain. By clicking on a horses TPR+ E/L tap one can see how a horse normally runs by the blue and red graphs. Within these graphs are contained various styles; Red = E,EP and P, Blue = SP,S and L. Some horses will have all red or all blue but what do we do with a horse that has both? Now here is a key to this, the reason a horse may have both is they tend to only do what they have to in a race. Look at its CPR and Total Energy numbers and choose a graph style that indicates it highest numbers for CPR & Tot. Energy as its preferred and best running style. Then choose a line that conforms to its style as verified by its better CPR and Tot. En. ratings. 2.That the variant for that line isn't taken from an non-normal track variant. The average variant is approximately 17 .They tend to run lower in the west where there is less rain and slower in the east where not only more rain but deeper tracks. Typically variants are normal from 7 to 27. This encompasses 5 lengths Its not unusual to find variants of 40 to 50 or far below 7, on heavy turf races or frozen tracks. Once these variants get beyond a certain point their accuracy are doubtful at best. Many horses can be gotten by more than one line. To check this is simple, just go to the BLBL screen and click on the original tab and all the variants are shown for the horses and lines chosen. Or it can be done at the time of selecting a line as the variant is shown to the right side. One and two above are also valid reasons to go past a line in using Sartin guidelines of best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Mitch44