Trying something new - Pace and Cap

Mark · 09-24-2018, 05:20 PM

I'm in my 6th year of Matching horses. I still only bet horses over 6/1 because it is a continual process of learning. Unless you are 100% committed to this work, don't start.
Read the Hat Check blog, 100 times and also go to the library on site and pull up the Red Match Up manual and read it as well numerous times. The red Manual was written many years before the Hat Check blog and it uses a different method. It is much more involved with beaten lengths. But as time marched on Jim found he could simplify things by focusing on Positions.
1. Projecting early pace is the key to the Match Up. I have come to believe that the race will be decided in the first quarter mile of most races. Without a need to lead Early horse where you have a known leader and fraction at the 1st call, it becomes difficult. So i would suggest you only bet races where you have this type of leader. Now you have a time that you can use to qualify all the other runners against. If a runner doesn't show a race where he competed successfully against this time, he is not a win contender.
2. Assign Running Styles: The program does its best to do this for you but its Running styles are more based on Energy than the visual position in the race where a horse runs well. If a horse cannot obtain his comfortable Running style in a race, he is not a win contender.
3. Understand right now that you cannot rely on the programs use of adjustments. They apply final time variant to the fractional times which was the method used 30 or 40 years ago. The Match Up was created by using the Racing Form only, it predates the use of personal computers. Jim Bradshaw was a genius in my opinion and would use selective adjustments to 1st calls based on his knowledge of track speed from one track to another. If you alter the 1st call of a race it has implications for 2nd Call and Final Time. He also knew Final Time adjustments by track, distance and surface.
4. implementing the Match Up on RDSS: It took me several years to figure out what not to use when matching with RDSS. I handicap RAW just as I would if I had a racing form in front of me. I don't want any alteration to the raw fractions, particularly the 1st and 2nd fraction. The 1st fraction is least effected by surface speed and most reliant on the actual speed of the horses. Final time is totally depended on the early pace and the early contention among the Early horses. Fast Early horse that can get the lead and maintain it without challenge will win alot of races. But most often they will have to fight to get the lead and again to maintain it and it will tell in the stretch.
5. Don't ignore the Trackmaster DTV. High negative variant races should be viewed very skeptically. High positive variants as well. Different types of horses will be advantaged in either case. I always try to find lines that make the horses competitive but have a DTV as close to 0 as possible.

Richie P is sometimes available on the site to comment. Most of the Hat Check blog is written by him. However, he has a full and happy life and limited time. He was the last person that Jim Bradshaw personally taught his method.

Good Luck!

09-24-2018, 05:20 PM	#8
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Match Up I'm in my 6th year of Matching horses. I still only bet horses over 6/1 because it is a continual process of learning. Unless you are 100% committed to this work, don't start. Read the Hat Check blog, 100 times and also go to the library on site and pull up the Red Match Up manual and read it as well numerous times. The red Manual was written many years before the Hat Check blog and it uses a different method. It is much more involved with beaten lengths. But as time marched on Jim found he could simplify things by focusing on Positions. 1. Projecting early pace is the key to the Match Up. I have come to believe that the race will be decided in the first quarter mile of most races. Without a need to lead Early horse where you have a known leader and fraction at the 1st call, it becomes difficult. So i would suggest you only bet races where you have this type of leader. Now you have a time that you can use to qualify all the other runners against. If a runner doesn't show a race where he competed successfully against this time, he is not a win contender. 2. Assign Running Styles: The program does its best to do this for you but its Running styles are more based on Energy than the visual position in the race where a horse runs well. If a horse cannot obtain his comfortable Running style in a race, he is not a win contender. 3. Understand right now that you cannot rely on the programs use of adjustments. They apply final time variant to the fractional times which was the method used 30 or 40 years ago. The Match Up was created by using the Racing Form only, it predates the use of personal computers. Jim Bradshaw was a genius in my opinion and would use selective adjustments to 1st calls based on his knowledge of track speed from one track to another. If you alter the 1st call of a race it has implications for 2nd Call and Final Time. He also knew Final Time adjustments by track, distance and surface. 4. implementing the Match Up on RDSS: It took me several years to figure out what not to use when matching with RDSS. I handicap RAW just as I would if I had a racing form in front of me. I don't want any alteration to the raw fractions, particularly the 1st and 2nd fraction. The 1st fraction is least effected by surface speed and most reliant on the actual speed of the horses. Final time is totally depended on the early pace and the early contention among the Early horses. Fast Early horse that can get the lead and maintain it without challenge will win alot of races. But most often they will have to fight to get the lead and again to maintain it and it will tell in the stretch. 5. Don't ignore the Trackmaster DTV. High negative variant races should be viewed very skeptically. High positive variants as well. Different types of horses will be advantaged in either case. I always try to find lines that make the horses competitive but have a DTV as close to 0 as possible. Richie P is sometimes available on the site to comment. Most of the Hat Check blog is written by him. However, he has a full and happy life and limited time. He was the last person that Jim Bradshaw personally taught his method. Good Luck!