Arlington Million day ideas - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 08-10-2017, 12:45 PM

Mike,

For Saturday it may not make a difference while trying to gauge the Euros, but if they have raced in the U. S. even if it was last year, I will use the line, assuming they were competitive in those races. It costs a lot to ship from Europe so if they have done it before, they must think that the horses are ready to go. For instance, I used Highland Reel's race from Arlington the previous year to help evaluate last years BC Turf.

One other note about the Euros. Every couple of years or so, they have a drought and the mile and 10f times come close to US times. When that happens you have a better gauge of what they might do once they get on US terra firma.

Everyday wise, mostly I play the West Coast and old research showed the top 3 F2 horses winning more than their share of races, as long as I kept the top 3 early EPR and late LPR in the TPR mix. I've also tracked TPR info by distance so I know that its rare to have a positive TPR in any turf route and as the distances get longer, the TPR gets more negative.

Just from memory at SA a -6 TPR is about the earliest mile; -12 TPR is early for 8.5f and somewhere in the -20 to -30 is normal for longer races. So in a perfect world I would like to see a top 3 F2 horse with a qualifying (in my mind) TPR.

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Arlington Beverly D G1 Stakes (8/16/2014)	Ted Craven	Races of Interest	10	08-18-2014 12:13 PM
Arlington Million G1 2014	Ted Craven	Races of Interest	2	08-16-2014 01:22 PM
Arlington Million Preview Day	Ryan.p.coli	Selections	8	07-15-2014 10:10 PM
Ontario Racing Update	Ted Craven	General Discussion	5	01-24-2013 11:16 PM
Arlington Park Handicappers Graveyard	trotman	General Discussion	17	06-20-2012 10:56 PM

08-10-2017, 12:45 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	Mike, For Saturday it may not make a difference while trying to gauge the Euros, but if they have raced in the U. S. even if it was last year, I will use the line, assuming they were competitive in those races. It costs a lot to ship from Europe so if they have done it before, they must think that the horses are ready to go. For instance, I used Highland Reel's race from Arlington the previous year to help evaluate last years BC Turf. One other note about the Euros. Every couple of years or so, they have a drought and the mile and 10f times come close to US times. When that happens you have a better gauge of what they might do once they get on US terra firma. Everyday wise, mostly I play the West Coast and old research showed the top 3 F2 horses winning more than their share of races, as long as I kept the top 3 early EPR and late LPR in the TPR mix. I've also tracked TPR info by distance so I know that its rare to have a positive TPR in any turf route and as the distances get longer, the TPR gets more negative. Just from memory at SA a -6 TPR is about the earliest mile; -12 TPR is early for 8.5f and somewhere in the -20 to -30 is normal for longer races. So in a perfect world I would like to see a top 3 F2 horse with a qualifying (in my mind) TPR.