History of the Methodology

[Tim Y]

First of all is the realization than ONCE the handicapping has PRIORITIZED the horses, NEVER GO BACK THERE, in other words, once you move from the handicapping side of the equation over to the wagering side, NEVER let any old, new or reviewed handicapping drift over to ANY decision made on what I call the "accounting" side of that equation. The only time to revisit that side is in the case of a late scratch or severe weather change.

So often I hear players GO back to yet another handicapping factor (adding MORE confusion to the ultimate decision) RATHER than the odds board in making that decision. If one choice is 2/1 and other 7/1 there should be NO reason to bet the short price, long term, if your evaluation has found that these two are close to the same ability.

Think of the odds as probabilities. There is a great website that explains booking points. https://aqha.com/racing/pages/racing...-morning-line/

After your make a wager, think of HOW much of the pool (probability will tell you) remains IN THE POOL to repay your wager, once you have made a choice. If you wager a Dutch 9/5 and 2/1, that is taking out almost 70% of the pool right there. No wonder the payout will be anemic.

THINK of odds as PROBABILITY, not odds because ultimately that is what they are. i.e. 2/1 is 0.3333 probable. To get this, flip the 2/1 to 1/2 and add 1 to the denominator to get 1/3 or 0.33333. 4/1 becomes 1/4 and then add one to the denominator 1/4+1 is 1/5 or 0.20 probability.Realize that probabilities go from 1.0 (absolute certainty like death and taxes) 0.00 to absolute impossible (Elvis will land in your back yard in a UFO tomorrow).

Change your mindset: think of gambling as no different than wagering on a fight, a baseball or football game. All we use in wagering is the realm of the probabilities of any particular horse...NO different than a wager on any particular basketball team.

I researched this for about 3 years and all but suspended wagering during that time. It was a truly HUMBLING to discover how inept my TOTAL approach was.

NEVER consider any ONE horse as winning a race. Rather think of the possibilities (just like PROBABILITIES) of any one of a group of CONTENDERS could win this race. I have expanded this to only betting contenders in exotics because of my contention that once a contender gets into the race, the move from the 1/16th pole to the wire is unpredictable long term. Think of how the chances of the CONTENDERS are stacked up against the PROBABILITIES and look for overlays.

There is a old (now almost debunked) idea that we have left and right brain activities going on all the time. While separation of these two thought processes continue as distinct, further research showed that it is NOT physically limited to one side of the brain but traditionally it has been promoted that a LEFT brain activity is using logic, math and science skills (rigid rules to follow) while the right brain activity is more creative and innovative. Most study that gave root to this idea were from observations of "split brain" patients and the idea was then retrofitted to normal.

So, on that analogy, we handicapping (creatively, innovatively etc.) with one hemisphere and then turn right around to have to abandon that side to the rigid rule based right side......In theory

It is important to separate these functions DISTINCTLY when playing this game. Set up RULES for wagering and don't waver from them. Set up minimums that you will take from observations of the odds board. IF the crowd is following you choices, PASS...there is another contest coming up in a few minutes if you are at a simulcast outlet.

It takes a bit of personal re-education to keep on in line with this separation, but it is doable for all of us once we have the contenders and LEAVE the handicapping as finished, then only decide based upon odds (probabilities offered).