Two Races A Day, Keeps the Profits Coming this way - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

Latekick · 08-15-2016, 03:50 PM

Tim, i could have used the line that you point out, however i decided not to use it because it was pretty far back and the horses recent form was nothing to be excited about. You win some, you lose some. That was a tough race, all in all a good day at Arlington though.

Latekick · 08-15-2016, 03:55 PM

Starting Wednesday i hope to be posting here LIVE from Saratoga. I have two flights tomorrow and will be landing in New York tomorrow evening. I will be spending the week at Saratoga with Pete Fornatale who covers all major tournaments for the DRF, as well as a few other DRF guys. It's going to be an exciting week, getting to see Songbird up close and personal this weekend will be pretty cool too!

I plan on continuing to post my two races a day on this thread, and will try to post some of the pictures i am able to get of some equine celebrities as well as some of the characters i'll meet out there. It's going to be one for the books, now i just have to get over my fear of flying and try to sleep my way all the way to New York!

Tim Y · 08-15-2016, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Latekick

Tim, i could have used the line that you point out, however i decided not to use it because it was pretty far back and the horses recent form was nothing to be excited about.

Remember what Pizzola says that there are NO form cycles on the turf

THAT epiphany changed my fortunes on the turf

Tim Y · 08-15-2016, 08:40 PM

It is all well and good that someone should evaluate the contenders to a point that (by his/her standards) the horse or horse entry, sticks out. IT IS ANOTHER THING to know if the GAMBLE on that idea is worth it.

Most of the selections, being a discovery or pace dominance or pace interactions that FAVOR one horse over the other. are also subject to late declarations. So. logically, how can one evaluate a pace scenario with of without some or all the contender pressure? scratched horse? A single pace pressure contender disappearing can change the whole outcome of the contested fractions.

When the odds gyrate all over, unpredictably often, how can anyone, in good conscience, dedicate a wager not knowing the market value of the same?

The game is like an equation. DON'T forget the gambling side need be addressed, in the FINAL FORM it takes at post time, before a wager, ANY wager is concluded.

Latekick · 08-16-2016, 10:31 AM

Tim you surley do always keep my mind revolving around the concept of value. For that i thank you.

Tim Y · 08-16-2016, 02:44 PM

Some days in the cold of winter, I review inner AQU, Parx and Oaklawn races and simply choose the best 2nd call horses in each race. Alone on the lead plays out much more ......in the COLD.

Problem usually is small fields at the first two, BUT a quick survey can find many "alone on the lead" situations particularly after scratches.

Play several tracks a day: pass the situations you know by your notes are not your best so as to get about 3 good plays per day per track.

Tim Y · 08-16-2016, 02:50 PM

DOSE OF REALISM: I work with some fairly sophisticated bettors. NOT a one makes big long term money on anything OTHER THAN exotics.

With win betting you have to make huge financial outlays and a single loss here and there can burst your bank. I f you have an edge (evolving track bias) that is one thing but usually those additions don't last long....Look for a bias on the Tapeta when it gets cold in Toronto as they cannot put water on it in the Fall as it will freeze. Kick back will be up and that favors the front.

The exotics contain a lot of sucker money PROVIDING You have the bankroll to go deep enough to make it worthwhile.

Latekick · 08-16-2016, 06:49 PM

Just wanted to give a quick update, I've arrived in Saratoga Springs. Will be on track tomorrow as well as rest of the week!

Tim Y · 08-16-2016, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Latekick

Just wanted to give a quick update, I've arrived in Saratoga Springs. Will be on track tomorrow as well as rest of the week!

Lets hope it dries out enough to have at least a few back on the lawn. The other day there were wholesale scratches that decimated most of the races.

Latekick · 08-16-2016, 07:26 PM

Clear over here tonight hopefully tomorrow is sunshine.

08-15-2016, 08:40 PM	#24
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	It is all well and good that someone should evaluate the contenders to a point that (by his/her standards) the horse or horse entry, sticks out. IT IS ANOTHER THING to know if the GAMBLE on that idea is worth it. Most of the selections, being a discovery or pace dominance or pace interactions that FAVOR one horse over the other. are also subject to late declarations. So. logically, how can one evaluate a pace scenario with of without some or all the contender pressure? scratched horse? A single pace pressure contender disappearing can change the whole outcome of the contested fractions. When the odds gyrate all over, unpredictably often, how can anyone, in good conscience, dedicate a wager not knowing the market value of the same? The game is like an equation. DON'T forget the gambling side need be addressed, in the FINAL FORM it takes at post time, before a wager, ANY wager is concluded. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

08-16-2016, 02:44 PM	#26
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Some days in the cold of winter, I review inner AQU, Parx and Oaklawn races and simply choose the best 2nd call horses in each race. Alone on the lead plays out much more ......in the COLD. Problem usually is small fields at the first two, BUT a quick survey can find many "alone on the lead" situations particularly after scratches. Play several tracks a day: pass the situations you know by your notes are not your best so as to get about 3 good plays per day per track. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

08-16-2016, 02:50 PM	#27
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	DOSE OF REALISM: I work with some fairly sophisticated bettors. NOT a one makes big long term money on anything OTHER THAN exotics. With win betting you have to make huge financial outlays and a single loss here and there can burst your bank. I f you have an edge (evolving track bias) that is one thing but usually those additions don't last long....Look for a bias on the Tapeta when it gets cold in Toronto as they cannot put water on it in the Fall as it will freeze. Kick back will be up and that favors the front. The exotics contain a lot of sucker money PROVIDING You have the bankroll to go deep enough to make it worthwhile. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

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08-15-2016, 03:50 PM	#21
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Tim, i could have used the line that you point out, however i decided not to use it because it was pretty far back and the horses recent form was nothing to be excited about. You win some, you lose some. That was a tough race, all in all a good day at Arlington though.

08-15-2016, 03:55 PM	#22
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Starting Wednesday i hope to be posting here LIVE from Saratoga. I have two flights tomorrow and will be landing in New York tomorrow evening. I will be spending the week at Saratoga with Pete Fornatale who covers all major tournaments for the DRF, as well as a few other DRF guys. It's going to be an exciting week, getting to see Songbird up close and personal this weekend will be pretty cool too! I plan on continuing to post my two races a day on this thread, and will try to post some of the pictures i am able to get of some equine celebrities as well as some of the characters i'll meet out there. It's going to be one for the books, now i just have to get over my fear of flying and try to sleep my way all the way to New York!

08-16-2016, 10:31 AM	#25
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Tim you surley do always keep my mind revolving around the concept of value. For that i thank you.

08-16-2016, 06:49 PM	#28
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Just wanted to give a quick update, I've arrived in Saratoga Springs. Will be on track tomorrow as well as rest of the week!

08-16-2016, 07:26 PM	#30
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Clear over here tonight hopefully tomorrow is sunshine.