Old ideas work

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by sureshotlink

What I find interesting about snow cloud was her 5F turf and poly races oversees and the comment lines each one produce.


(1) lead near finish
(2) kept on strongly
(3) strong run final furlong


Cassidy used route race to put some finish into snow cloud. Third race back
produced top total energy figure in the field.

God I love horseracing!!...

Paul link
Los Angeles,Ca

Paul, don't know if you have the New Pace module or not, but if you do and you use the Trackmaster option for speed ratings, Snow Cloud is the second best Late horse, L2 in New Pace parlance based on its foreign races speed rating.

Also note that Snow Cloud's 6.5 turf race was from SA. I usually add 8 points to the adjusted speed rating to see how it relates to the rest of the field, in this case pretty good. I just started looking at this next adjustment, but because of the low adjusted Speed Rating you can probably add about 4-5 points of total energy to see how the horse might rank. You can see that its best TE of the horses than ran down the hill at SA. But perhaps better than that, look at the first and third fractions and the deceleration. Forget the 2nd fraction from these down the hill races, its altered by the slope and the program for some reason really undervalues it.

In this race there were four horses who raced down the hill in the lines that I chose. compare the horses from the down hill turf course to themselves and look for weaker horses to eliminate. See note on #7 below. The 3 has the best F1 of these 4, out runs the 7, can't be caught by the 5 and can only be over taken by the 12

Then I looked at the top two horses (also the favorites in the ML), for me the 8 and 4 and see that their E/L numbers are very high, +21 and +16 respectively (these numbers do not win turf sprints..) eliminate them and the picture becomes clearer. On the velocity screen their F3 values are right at 30.0 and lower. See also that the 7 who can't make the lead has an F3 of 29.8 after not being competitive at the second call. With these 3 eliminated the final field might look something like this: