MPH Pro as an Adjunct - Pace and Cap

Rivegauche610 · 06-20-2016, 08:13 PM

I've been handicapping the Wednesday Woodbine card and have found two anomalies, one of which I'm sharing here. It is interesting, and I would welcome any input and opinions from more RDSS-experienced hands.

For the 6th at Woodbine, an n1x Allowance at 6f, Brisnet's Prime Power has them ranked 3-5-7-1; MPH Pro (see attachment 1) ranks them 5-7-3-1 based on my paceline selection (and I usually assign two when possible); and RDSS ranks them 5-1-2(-4) as you can see on the attached screen excerpt. "Secondary Contenders" statuses have been arbitrarily assigned by me based on both BL/BL analysis and the Segments screen.

My first question I have to ask myself (and the membership at large) is whether the #3 deserves it's assigned status by BRIS and MPH Pro. According to RDSS, and one can easily discern this corroboratively on the PPs, the 3 horse tends to have a more robust middle segment than closing segment, even though the evidence in its most recent race suggests an impending improvement due to the second best lifetime late pace figure. It came back later in the fall and wasn't the same animal. Its comeback in May was on turf and today we are on Tapeta. My instinct tells me he may be a vulnerable favorite despite Josie Carrol's 34% beaten favorite number.

That 34% is the key, though, because RDSS and MPH don't know and don't care about trainer proclivities. Neither, I gather, did Doc Sartin! I do. I've made some money on Josie Carrol horses over the recent years, so I don't discount her ability, nor can one ignore the jockey's tendencies, either.

I am inclined to "trust" the RDSS analysis via the VDC% which shows a dramatic difference between the top three figures and the BRIS fave's.

While I gather can't choose two and only two pacelines in RDSS, I can in MPH Pro and I have reached out to Trackmaster in order to speak with anyone who knows the software and can tell me how it deals with two pacelines vs. one.

At this point, my win choices are the 5 and the 1 both at $6, and an exacta box 125 plus a part wheel 125/3 and small reversal unless I become convinced the 3 isn't going to jump up and sustain the move up to the end and better the 1, 2, 5 (and 7!) and win.

So now comes the audience participation portion. Looking at RDSS' choice of pacelines vs. mine, does anyone have anything they can tell me that might better inform the decision making process?

Many thanks,

Kevin

P.S. probably a better topic for a separate post, but how do people use the third panel of the Segments screen, if they use them? I tend to take the F1 and F2 panels at face value, but the last panel frequently confounds me as it occasionally contradicts other data on other tabs (like the TPR and the BL/BL!!).

06-20-2016, 08:13 PM	#9
Rivegauche610 AlwNW3X Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: The Confederacy, alas, but temporarily. Posts: 34	RDSS, MPH Pro, BRISnet UPPs and Me I've been handicapping the Wednesday Woodbine card and have found two anomalies, one of which I'm sharing here. It is interesting, and I would welcome any input and opinions from more RDSS-experienced hands. For the 6th at Woodbine, an n1x Allowance at 6f, Brisnet's Prime Power has them ranked 3-5-7-1; MPH Pro (see attachment 1) ranks them 5-7-3-1 based on my paceline selection (and I usually assign two when possible); and RDSS ranks them 5-1-2(-4) as you can see on the attached screen excerpt. "Secondary Contenders" statuses have been arbitrarily assigned by me based on both BL/BL analysis and the Segments screen. My first question I have to ask myself (and the membership at large) is whether the #3 deserves it's assigned status by BRIS and MPH Pro. According to RDSS, and one can easily discern this corroboratively on the PPs, the 3 horse tends to have a more robust middle segment than closing segment, even though the evidence in its most recent race suggests an impending improvement due to the second best lifetime late pace figure. It came back later in the fall and wasn't the same animal. Its comeback in May was on turf and today we are on Tapeta. My instinct tells me he may be a vulnerable favorite despite Josie Carrol's 34% beaten favorite number. That 34% is the key, though, because RDSS and MPH don't know and don't care about trainer proclivities. Neither, I gather, did Doc Sartin! I do. I've made some money on Josie Carrol horses over the recent years, so I don't discount her ability, nor can one ignore the jockey's tendencies, either. I am inclined to "trust" the RDSS analysis via the VDC% which shows a dramatic difference between the top three figures and the BRIS fave's. While I gather can't choose two and only two pacelines in RDSS, I can in MPH Pro and I have reached out to Trackmaster in order to speak with anyone who knows the software and can tell me how it deals with two pacelines vs. one. At this point, my win choices are the 5 and the 1 both at $6, and an exacta box 125 plus a part wheel 125/3 and small reversal unless I become convinced the 3 isn't going to jump up and sustain the move up to the end and better the 1, 2, 5 (and 7!) and win. So now comes the audience participation portion. Looking at RDSS' choice of pacelines vs. mine, does anyone have anything they can tell me that might better inform the decision making process? Many thanks, Kevin P.S. probably a better topic for a separate post, but how do people use the third panel of the Segments screen, if they use them? I tend to take the F1 and F2 panels at face value, but the last panel frequently confounds me as it occasionally contradicts other data on other tabs (like the TPR and the BL/BL!!). Attached Images