FG 12/26 - race 4 - Merry Christmas Mike

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by justin13892002

Mike,

Sorry I just got back in town, and missed the post. Hope you all had that NICE winner, 2.

yeah right...

welcome home J

[mamojica]

...and this is one of them. I projected the 5 to go for the lead because in 5 of the last 6 races she either got or tried for the lead at two furlongs. But I wasn't very confident because this was her third race back from an 8 month layoff and she wasn't running so great. I projected her to go for the lead, although I didn't think she would win, and used the Jan 29 line to project 2f at 22.3 and 4f at 46.4. She was 5th at 2f and finished 9th. So that went wrong right away.

#9 was one of my contenders, but she also had recently come back from a long layoff, plus she had changed trainers during that layoff. She hasn't performed so well since then, and I wasn't very confident in her chances. I projected her as a contender based on her performance pre-layoff and pre-trainer change. She challenged briefly, then faded.

#11 was my second contender. She had been racing fairly regularly, but her last time out was a disaster. She could handle the projected pace based on her performances this summer, but not lately. So I wasn't very confident in her either.

#1 was my third and final contender. This was her first race back from a 4 month layoff. Her last outing was terrible, which probably explains why she needed the break. Not a confidence builder. But earlier races indicated she could handle the projected pace, so I made her a contender. The crowd disagreed, and sent her out with the second longest odds on the board. The crowd was right and I was wrong.

Even though she was the morning line favorite, I ruled out the #7 as contender. In order for her to perform well, the pace had to be slower than I projected. But her recent form was the best in the field. Jim Bradshaw said he didn’t look at recent form, and as a faithful follower of The Match-Up, I eliminated her as a contender, but with some trepidation. As it turned out, it was the right thing to do.

Eliminating the #7 was the only thing I got right with this race. I ruled out the #2 and #10, the win and place horses, right off the bat as being too slow.

I’ve been using The Match-Up since March. I use the 5-Step Approach exclusively. I don’t use software. One of the things I am learning is that if the 5-Step Approach doesn’t point to a clear cut selection, you shouldn’t bet. If it is a close call among a number of horses, just pass the race. I’ll bet two horses at most. If I’ve narrowed the race down to three horses, but can’t narrow it down further, I just skip it. I have to be absolutely sure that my one or two selections are the only ones that can win.

With this race, I had little confidence in anything. This race had “PASS” written all over it.

Bill picked a good practice race, even though I ended up deciding to pass. I need to practice passing. I tend to try to squeeze out a winner, and end up losing more races than I should.

Regards,
Marc

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by mamojica

...and this is one of them. I projected the 5 to go for the lead because in 5 of the last 6 races she either got or tried for the lead at two furlongs. But I wasn't very confident because this was her third race back from an 8 month layoff and she wasn't running so great. I projected her to go for the lead, although I didn't think she would win, and used the Jan 29 line to project 2f at 22.3 and 4f at 46.4. She was 5th at 2f and finished 9th. So that went wrong right away.

#9 was one of my contenders, but she also had recently come back from a long layoff, plus she had changed trainers during that layoff. She hasn't performed so well since then, and I wasn't very confident in her chances. I projected her as a contender based on her performance pre-layoff and pre-trainer change. She challenged briefly, then faded.

#11 was my second contender. She had been racing fairly regularly, but her last time out was a disaster. She could handle the projected pace based on her performances this summer, but not lately. So I wasn't very confident in her either.

#1 was my third and final contender. This was her first race back from a 4 month layoff. Her last outing was terrible, which probably explains why she needed the break. Not a confidence builder. But earlier races indicated she could handle the projected pace, so I made her a contender. The crowd disagreed, and sent her out with the second longest odds on the board. The crowd was right and I was wrong.

Even though she was the morning line favorite, I ruled out the #7 as contender. In order for her to perform well, the pace had to be slower than I projected. But her recent form was the best in the field. Jim Bradshaw said he didn’t look at recent form, and as a faithful follower of The Match-Up, I eliminated her as a contender, but with some trepidation. As it turned out, it was the right thing to do.

Eliminating the #7 was the only thing I got right with this race. I ruled out the #2 and #10, the win and place horses, right off the bat as being too slow.

I’ve been using The Match-Up since March. I use the 5-Step Approach exclusively. I don’t use software. One of the things I am learning is that if the 5-Step Approach doesn’t point to a clear cut selection, you shouldn’t bet. If it is a close call among a number of horses, just pass the race. I’ll bet two horses at most. If I’ve narrowed the race down to three horses, but can’t narrow it down further, I just skip it. I have to be absolutely sure that my one or two selections are the only ones that can win.

With this race, I had little confidence in anything. This race had “PASS” written all over it.

Bill picked a good practice race, even though I ended up deciding to pass. I need to practice passing. I tend to try to squeeze out a winner, and end up losing more races than I should.

Regards,
Marc

Marc,

I agree some races are tough. I did happen to see on the Print Screens, the little red box by the 2, which means the RDSS software had as top selection?

Nice $44 winner if so. I too dont use the RDSS version, as I created my MANUAL input version in excel, but will be converting to RDSS in the near future! Excellent software!