Penn Natl Race 5 12/18

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Hello Bill and Justin,
I’m sorry for breaking into your discussion, but I just felt the need to do so.

Bill, first I’m going to give you my answer to your question about “how long tandems are valid”.
Right up until the horses pass the finish line in the race in which they ran together. After that, forget about it.

Example: Horse “A” runs against horse “B”. The ONLY horse in the race that is “early” is horse “A”. Every other horse in the race cannot even be REMOTELY considered and early horse. Horse “A” wires the field. Is there anyone that believes horse “B” cannot beat horse “A” in a future race over any period of time? Even if horse “A” is one of many competitive early types in a race where horse “B” is the lone closer?

Or, let’s take the opposite. Horse “A” is a stone closer. EVERY OTHER horse in the race is an early type and also very competitive early types. Horse “A” closes to beat the field. Is there anyone who believes NONE of these early types can ever beat horse “A”, even if one of them end up as the LONE EARLY in the very next race with horse “A”?

This is common sense, basic handicapping 101.

Next, let me assure you that I am not what you would call “a matcher”. However, I understand it. I understand it to this extent. Every race (line) you pick to evaluate a horse in a computer program and/or every race (line) you use in your “match up”, brings with it the “match ups” from THAT RACE. If you believe you are a “matcher” then you know that is true. You know that it was the “match ups” in that race that directly affected the outcome of that race, that is the VERY REASON you are trying to find the various times and styles that will allow you to understand which horse(s) will most likely win today’s race based on that information. Once you have made your determination for today’s race, win or lose, what good are today’s match ups the next time any of these horses run again? For any of the information you gathered today to be valid after today, the next race would have to be EXACTLY the same and we all know that there will NEVER be another race like the one you are looking at today.

Justin, you say, “layoffs mean nothing”. The first thing I would have to know is, what period of time between two races do you consider a layoff. Until then, let me offer some facts.
1 – 76% of all winners have run within the last 30 days
2 – 88% of all winners have run within the last 45 days
3 – 92% of all winners have run within the last 60 days
4 – 94% of all winners have run within the last 90 days

Let’s look at it another way. If you are considering betting a horse that has been off

1 – more than 90 days, you have a 6% chance of winning
2 – more than 60 days, you have a 8% chance of winning
3 – more than 45 days, you have a 12% chance of winning
4 – more than 30 days, a 24% chance of winning

It seems “time off” severely impacts the chances of a horse winning once you go beyond 30 days since its’ last race.
This information is based on more than 500,000 races.
Without doing more research, my guess would be, that many of these horses that make up the group of horses that won after having been off more than 90 days, would be those horses at the top of the class ladder that ARE capable of being off for long periods of time and come back to the races in peak form. These horses make up a very small percentage when compared to all the horses in training throughout the year.

For the Lead,

I think the question was refferring to how I use the matchup. When I get down within 4 or 5 horses, I will then look for tandems. I never look at layoffs. I understand most horses win (90% according to you, but my database shows 87%), but a horse has to be good enough BEFORE the layoff to win in the 1st start back. Some horses in your query doesn't stand a shot based on the pace the horse has faced previously before the break, and therefore wouldn't be a contender anyways.

As far as Tandems, as Jim I am sure, would have agreed, that although a horse lost to another, its HOW and WHY he lost to that horse that counts. If the horses were close, and its been awhile, the loser of the 1st race def. can beat the other horse. Now if Horse A beat horse B in the Tandem race, and in that race Horse B was no better than 7th the entire race, I dont care whether the race was yesterday or a year ago, Horse B will most unlikely beat Horse A.

Again, I believe the question was HOW I USE THE MATCHUP. I may have been mistaken, and if so I apologize.