Penn Natl Race 5 12/18
 

Post Time @ 8:23

Heres another ...

If anybody is wondering how and why I choose a race....

I look for a non-maiden sprint with a nice size field and hopefully a fast track
also a late race so that enough people have time to look at it
I know some people like Penn...so maybe they'll chime in too..

good luck

mike

Morning Mike.

I've picked up Penn now that Woodbine is closed and have been having some luck there.

Unfortunately, I can't play and post at the same time, I find it's disastrous for me, but I'll be thinking of you and will look at your posts when I have a chance.

Have you noticed that Parker, the jockey, has moved from Mountaineer to Penn. I find that whatever horse he is on gets bet down to nothing.

I have found that the later races are better too.

Havae a good day.

Barb

I
 

Hello Barb

Yes I too find Penn a lot better although turf and poly lines
do get to be troublesome

D Parker I think is headed to AQU, maybe just stopping over at Penn

Good Skill
and I hear you about posting and working races at the same time
its tough for me too

Mike,

Thanks for putting another one up. I will do my best.


Line chosen for each horse

1---2 Back
1A---2 Back
2---Last race
3---Last Race
4---Last Race
5---Last Race
6---Last Race
7---Last Out
8---4 Back
9---Last Out
10---2 Back



Gained and lost lengths at pace

1---45.1---111.4----Gained 1
1A--45----110------Lost 1
2---45.1---110----Lost 7
3---46.4---111.3----Lost 1
4---45.4---111.1---Lost 7
5---45----110.3----Lost 6
6---44.4----111.3---Gained 1/2
7---45.4---111.1----Gained 3
8---45.2---110.2---Even
9---45.2---109.2---Lost 2
10--44.2---109.2---Even


The eliminations should be 1-3-4-5-6. The 1,3,4,6 were gaining little or lost lengths against slower pace. The 5 is eliminated due to Losing 6 lengths against mediocre pace. Keeping the 7 as the Biggest gain, even though pace was just mediocre.

The 2 should probably be eliminated next, as lost many lengths against 110 pace, which others have done okay against.

The 1A should be eliminated next, losing Tandem to #10, where the 1A was no better than 6th at any point in that race.


Top 4 horses are 7-8-9-10.

Again, you can stop and put thses 4 horses into your software and let it do the crunching, but again I don't use software.


I will continue for those who dont use software.

The 8 should be the next eminated, as again, lost the tandem with #10 in last, and was no better than 5th, which was at the first call.


Contenders 7-9-10.

7---45.4---111.1----Gained 3
9---45.2---109.2---Lost 2
10--44.2---109.2---Even


I would then probably eliminate the 7, as the 7 although gaining, raced against a SLOWER pace than he will face today.

The 10 seems to be the all around fastest finishing 2nd at the 109.2 pace.


The selection is 10.


Good Luck

Thanks
 

Justin for another lesson. So if i am understanding this rt todays race is 6f so we pick a line at 6f. so if the last race is 6f thats the line we use? even if his 3 races below that had faster half mile times. Example, horse last race at 6f was run in 46, race below that was run in 45, we use the 46 line being that was his last race at 6fur? Now what if the last race the horse had at 6f was a troubled line, would u still use that?

Bob

good questions Bob..

Justin to save time...can u give us some "what ifs" that you think we might ask or that you have ran into

mike

Hey guys,

have to head back to work right now, but will def. give some what ifs this evening. To be honest, this method works many times, around 64% of my top 2 horses win. It doesn't always work, but does show a nice profit over time. I really hope things all work out. Will post some helpers tonight!


Justin

Justin ...do what you have to do...man

your post are very much welcomed and appreciated

as you can see , your technique has opened some eyes :eek: and got some interest
we needed new blood in here


we will be here for you and anyone else that wants to join in

mike

Thanks for the post and another possible view
 

One thing I see from Justin's posts that he is pretty unforgiving in his choice of pace lines. Another occasional poster on this site is pretty much the same way in his choice of lines. If horse has raced in the last 30 days he pretty much uses it for today. Maybe I've been giving too much credit to these animals (i.e. looking for too good of a race).

Anyway, I don't disagree with how Justin posted and came up with his winner, but I do have a follow up on one of my past posts that might have some effect on other than win placings tonite.

The 6 Valiant Humor can win either on or just off pace and the pace tonite looks about 22.2 45.3 or so, so he won't fade as bad as he did in last. VH won 10 back at Penn for Cl 5000 and comes back after a competitive Cl 4000 loss at FL. Race 10 is almost exactly the estimated pace for tonight and he won handily.

Unadjusted TPR numbers:
From race 10 (rough #) early 92; late 84, total 176
From race 1 early 95.5; late 76.5, total 172

This horse looks like a true 2:1 horse. The early today at first call is 4 ticks slower than race 10; the 2nd call is 4 ticks slower, so adding 8 ticks to the 76.5 = 84.5 (makes his final fraction a shade less than 25 seconds and his total TPR = 176.5). So I think the six does well with this pace tonight on or just off the lead. I think the 10 beats, but maybe not.

If you look at 10 he ran 25 second last furlongs in all his best races, but no better, even when the pace was slower! I think he tops out at 25, so that any other close-to-the-pace horse with a 25 second closing fraction will be competitive.

If they run 45.2 or 45.3 I think winning time is 110.2 or 110.3 which is still good enough to win and still the only horse finishing near that is the 6 with the 7 as a contra closer (3 places in last three races).

I think a 6-7-10 box is in order.

Amazing, isnt it, when someone else, meaning Justin, lays it out so effortlessly?

Justin, thanks for laying this race out for us.

Ok guys here goes another winner :o

what I do first in traditional PDF PP's is look at the race summery down at the bottom
The PPG ( Pace Pressure Guide) that Randy Giles book talks about will give me a clue on how the pace will run...its 27-0...which means a lot of P type horses but no real early...So what I do now is label each horse E S P ...and throw out any horses that need to win as a "S Type "based on the numbers above..When JB taked about throwing "groups" out ..I assume that he determined how the race sets up then out they went..if the race was determined "OTE" out went the "E's"

ok

1-7-9 look like S Type...out
1a-4-8 look like no-form horses ..nothing in last couple races

left with 2-3-5-6-10..isnt it ideal when u can get a field of 11 down to 5???

projected pace..( Tom's tip)

I see 22.4 45.3

#3 last 2 races 46+ 2c's...out

2-5-6-10
#5 fades last 2 races at this pace
# 6 abnormal last race and wins at slower pace..out

2-10

I see the 2 ahead of the 10 in the race

#2

mike