Tampa Sunday 3rd Race

[tfm]

Originally Posted by RichieP

If I told you how many times in the last 3 days I ran 2nd big bro you nor anyone else would believe me.

I initially wanted to discuss this with you when reading your thread about The Hat's suggested method of play: spot bets at > 2:1.

I would believe you, as I typically go through the same thing. For example, out of my last 17 plays, I've had 4 winners and 6 seconds ---3 of them by photos. (In fact, I'm on a streak where I've lost > 10 photos in a row.)
All of the place prices were greater than $4, with more than half being over $6.

The problem here is that you're making good picks, your horses are running but you're not getting rewarded (assuming you're not playing exotics or to place)

This phenomenon was correlated nicely, by someone on another forum, to the about average hitter running into poor luck when his line drives are hit directly at someone. The argument being that once you reach a certain level of skill, the only luck you typically have is of the bad sort. Makes sense, too.

Two possible options, it seems to me.

1) just keep plugging away and make your selections even more airtight

2) play more exotics (like the masses); alot easier using 4 horses in an 8 horse field and hitting something, rather than banking on a single horse and getting skunked by bad luck.