Pizzolla and "Two Excuse" method - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 01-08-2018, 11:12 AM

In my brief instances of free time in the mornings, I've been reading Pizzolla's "Handicapping Magic" on the iPad. Lots of good (and provocative) ideas, as is the Pizzolla norm. One chapter that caught my eye was the "Two Excuse" method of paceline selection. As the method suggests, if there are two valid reasons to go beyond the last line, you skip to the next line and apply the same logic until you can no longer justify going beyond the line. At that point, you take the best race (Pizzolla uses Pace Balanced Speed - PBS and Projected Power Fraction) within that "form cycle window" as your paceline. Pizzolla's logic is that oftentimes, that method will net better mutuels and exotics because the user will be using lines that others may summarily dismiss due to various reasons.

In my work with Mitch last year, we were often using the best perceptor over a similar distance (within a furlong, preferably a half furlong) and surface (no muddy/sloppy tracks on dirt), providing that the line was not completely conformed to the horse's normal E/L distribution pattern. In a sense, the logic is similar - opening up the PPs to snag more of the "under the radar" runners that standard conventions may disagree with.

Does anyone here have experience with the teachings of "Handicapping Magic" and if so, what were your takeaways?

01-08-2018, 11:12 AM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Pizzolla and "Two Excuse" method In my brief instances of free time in the mornings, I've been reading Pizzolla's "Handicapping Magic" on the iPad. Lots of good (and provocative) ideas, as is the Pizzolla norm. One chapter that caught my eye was the "Two Excuse" method of paceline selection. As the method suggests, if there are two valid reasons to go beyond the last line, you skip to the next line and apply the same logic until you can no longer justify going beyond the line. At that point, you take the best race (Pizzolla uses Pace Balanced Speed - PBS and Projected Power Fraction) within that "form cycle window" as your paceline. Pizzolla's logic is that oftentimes, that method will net better mutuels and exotics because the user will be using lines that others may summarily dismiss due to various reasons. In my work with Mitch last year, we were often using the best perceptor over a similar distance (within a furlong, preferably a half furlong) and surface (no muddy/sloppy tracks on dirt), providing that the line was not completely conformed to the horse's normal E/L distribution pattern. In a sense, the logic is similar - opening up the PPs to snag more of the "under the radar" runners that standard conventions may disagree with. Does anyone here have experience with the teachings of "Handicapping Magic" and if so, what were your takeaways?