Preakness Stakes Marathon (?) - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 05-12-2015, 01:46 PM

Top three and fifth from Derby go here with Divining Rod, Tale of Verve off maiden win and the local Bodhisatva.

Danzig Moon, 5th in Derby, improved in Derby closing to within 3.25 lengths at the mile mark before slightly fading, like Oxbox did a couple back, although Oxbow got within about a half length before fading, then went on to wire the Preakness field. I would also note that Oxbow had a top 5 mile time before the Preakness and was only about .36 second off the best mile time. Firing Line and Dortmund have run in the mid to high 134s and mid 135s to Danzig's 137.1 best so there is a lot of improving to do on that front.

Divining Rod improved in its last and should track about 4th in this field.

Tale of Verve is trained by Dallas Stewart who seems to understand what it takes to get a horse ready for these TC races. Couldn't get in the Derby but in the last two Derbys his horse finished 2nd at balloon odds that defied RDSS and almost every other handicapping system, so I will have an exacta with this horse to save my large face.

The top 11 mile times come from the top three Derby finishers, all of whom have shown pressing and leading ability. #12 is Danzig Moon, .63 seconds slower than #11, who benefits first from an unexpected speed duel from the top three, but is probably good enough to be in a box trifecta with the other Derby runners.

If for some reason the local horse gets a slow early lead and is ignored by the more seasoned types waiting for a pace collapse or one of the top three engages the slow pace setter it could set up for an unlikely finish. I really think the cruising speed of the top three will have the local gasping by the 6 furlong mark.

The Hat Marathon method (even tho this is 1/16th short of a true marathon) of best mile times combined with positioning strongly favors the top 3 from the derby and I would hope for a reversal of the tandem from the Derby for a little price. Might have to play the super to make any $$ this time around.

Good luck

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05-12-2015, 01:46 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	Preakness Stakes Marathon (?) Top three and fifth from Derby go here with Divining Rod, Tale of Verve off maiden win and the local Bodhisatva. Danzig Moon, 5th in Derby, improved in Derby closing to within 3.25 lengths at the mile mark before slightly fading, like Oxbox did a couple back, although Oxbow got within about a half length before fading, then went on to wire the Preakness field. I would also note that Oxbow had a top 5 mile time before the Preakness and was only about .36 second off the best mile time. Firing Line and Dortmund have run in the mid to high 134s and mid 135s to Danzig's 137.1 best so there is a lot of improving to do on that front. Divining Rod improved in its last and should track about 4th in this field. Tale of Verve is trained by Dallas Stewart who seems to understand what it takes to get a horse ready for these TC races. Couldn't get in the Derby but in the last two Derbys his horse finished 2nd at balloon odds that defied RDSS and almost every other handicapping system, so I will have an exacta with this horse to save my large face. The top 11 mile times come from the top three Derby finishers, all of whom have shown pressing and leading ability. #12 is Danzig Moon, .63 seconds slower than #11, who benefits first from an unexpected speed duel from the top three, but is probably good enough to be in a box trifecta with the other Derby runners. If for some reason the local horse gets a slow early lead and is ignored by the more seasoned types waiting for a pace collapse or one of the top three engages the slow pace setter it could set up for an unlikely finish. I really think the cruising speed of the top three will have the local gasping by the 6 furlong mark. The Hat Marathon method (even tho this is 1/16th short of a true marathon) of best mile times combined with positioning strongly favors the top 3 from the derby and I would hope for a reversal of the tandem from the Derby for a little price. Might have to play the super to make any $$ this time around. Good luck