Sunday, February 15, 2009

[mikesal57]

hey Charles...was that the highest primary # for the winner #6..

Do use use off track lines ?

what would the readout look with out off track?

mike

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

hey Charles...was that the highest primary # for the winner #6..

Do use use off track lines ?

what would the readout look with out off track?

mike

That was the highest primary for the 6 as well as the highest SR of the last three races. Plus it was the most recent.

I'll use an off-track line if the variant isn't too abnormal and if it's a line from the same track. In the case of the 6 horse, the variant was only a -2. As a point of comparison, two races back was listed as fast, yet the variant was 25. Not that I'd ever have considered that race for pace line selection anyway. Prior to that were two races at Belmont, but that's a one-turn track for those distances.

But as I've said, my basic MO for picking pace lines has not changed. However, the rankings of the eventual winners has.

Let's see what happens in the fifth race. The 6 horse comes out on top in BL.

But I have the 5, despite being #4 in BL as being considerably faster up front than the rest of my contenders.

I'll play both since the odds warrant doing so.

[Bill V.]

With all respect Clore I worked the race I used Val 4 mode and looking at the Adjusted pace lines here are my thoughts

I hope I can be of help My betting decision based on your contender and slightly different lines would be win bets on the 3 and 6 and
since the 4 was the "peaked" horse - This race is a classic example of horses in the top two tiers that may have peaked and a nice value horse in tier 3
winning Somethig Doc Sartin stress to watch for I would only use the 4 place or show or in a exacta

wishing you good success thanks for your screen shot
Bill

My take on the race I have no idea who won
except I know its one of your top 5 and you say its at the bottom

Horse 5 you used the last line in the mud an 87 adjusted speed rating
the horse ususally ran in the 70's at crc and its two highest race speed ratings
were on off tracks The 7.0 90 speed rating at 7.0 furlongs seems odd to concidering the horse
usuall runs in the 70's

I would give the horse a break since its in form I will use
line 4 a 76 speed rating

Horse 3 you used line 2 a 83 speed rating
I agree Clearly the best of the last 3 comperable

Horse 4 You used the 84 from line 3 Clearly this is the horses best race
this is a peak performance for this horse If RDSS had a notation feature
I would us the race but make the notation that if its not top rated will
the horse be able to top this effert the 89 APV and 5th rated Class rating
buts Doubt in my mind

I would use the same line but with caution


Horse 2 You used the last line a mud line 17 days ago from AQU inner
at 8.0 furlongs
this looks like a Inner AQU only horse Its last race was the first race after a year off
and the horse had the lead in the stretch going wire to wire but finished 2nd
losing 4 lenghts it got tired in the mud In its 2 3 and 4th races it ran
75 75 and 76 speed ratings at on the AQU inner and they were all races were the horse
very well finishing first or second I would use the best of these races and
RDSS primary /perceptor says its line 2 the 76 speed rating

Horse 6 You used the last line 81 Speed rating on the AQU inner
I totally agree These are all basically maiden winners and Horse 6
won its maiden at belmont with a 80 speed rating
Its top 3 APV and 4th CR I have not doubt the 6 can run in the 80 speed rating range

[clore1030]

Bill, thanks for all of that, I appreciate it.

I'm curious - do you always use Val 4 mode, or does it vary depending on distance?

[clore1030]

I'll stay out of the sixth. My picks are too short in odds.

[Bill V.]

I use Val 4 most of the time I always use the adjusted screen

I know the spec mode is probably better but I feel better
using Val 4. There is a certain reason why I say that. Since I don't "have" to bet any race, If I come onto a race with questions I just pass.
Usually I just have time to cherry pick some races on a card.
If there are many extractions or projections in pacelines
than I would use spec mode, As Ted has mentioned this is an improved feature over Val 4 . Since I don't have to worry about that
and I just am so locked in to using lines with over 7.5 beaten lengths
I have no temptation to use spec mode. But I am unique. I have many
tools in my RDSS tool box but basically I'm just using a windows based Val 4.
Living with my VDC readouts,
But for an overall best way to go I would say to use Spec mode

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I use Val 4 most of the time I always use the adjusted screen

I know the spec mode is probably better but I feel better
using Val 4. There is a certain reason why I say that. Since I don't "have" to bet any race, If I come onto a race with questions I just pass.
Usually I just have time to cherry pick some races on a card.
If there are many extractions or projections in pacelines
than I would use spec mode, As Ted has mentioned this is an improved feature over Val 4 . Since I don't have to worry about that
and I just am so locked in to using lines with over 7.5 beaten lengths
I have no temptation to use spec mode. But I am unique. I have many
tools in my RDSS tool box but basically I'm just using a windows based Val 4.
Living with my VDC readouts,
But for an overall best way to go I would say to use Spec mode

I won't use pace lines that are over 7.5 beaten lengths either, even if they have a better perceptor rating. In fact, if I can keep them all to 5 or less in terms of beaten lengths, I'm happy.

If there's too much guess work, I'll easily pass a race. Too many stretchers or turn-backs cloud the process.

If the odds are too low, I'll also pass. I liked Smooth Wind in the sixth at AQU, but not at even money. Friday I worked six races but ended up playing only one, hitting for $15.20.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by clore1030

I won't use pace lines that are over 7.5 beaten lengths either, even if they have a better perceptor rating. In fact, if I can keep them all to 5 or less in terms of beaten lengths, I'm happy.

If there's too much guess work, I'll easily pass a race. Too many stretchers or turn-backs cloud the process.

If the odds are too low, I'll also pass. I liked Smooth Wind in the sixth at AQU, but not at even money. Friday I worked six races but ended up playing only one, hitting for $15.20.

Thats a good plan. Anytime my top 3 BLBL/VDC are also the top 3 favorites
I pass the race

I washed out in todays pick 3
The 8 horse won the 6th at Philly
I still will bet win bets on any horse of the last 6 that or over 9/2
to win as are Docs pick 3 guidelines

C FYI the 8 horse that beat me was not in my top 5
sometimes stuff happens

Bill

[JLG]

AQU 7th

5 horse if he stays 3/1 or better.

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by JLG

AQU 7th

5 horse if he stays 3/1 or better.

Good to see you, and good to see that we agree on the 5 horse.