Ted Craven - October

[Ted Craven]

My approach:

I'll try to pick races where at least 7 runners start. I use the Paceline Selection tool for a first crack at line selection, then carefully review EVERY horse for current form and whether the paceline selected makes sense. Horses with lines ranking well on Total Energy or BL/BL but who have NOT shown contentious running in the past few races in their current cycle (i.e. since last layoff break) are marked as either Secondary or Non Contenders.

I eliminate from the bottom up of the BL/BL readout until I reach 4 or 5 horses who ALL could win the race. Generally speaking, if a favourite below 2-1 ranks on top by 2+ BL points, I may single it. Greater than 2-1 or closely followed by another horse >= 4-1 I will bet both. A horse < 2-1 or so who is not on Top of my BLBL can be omitted in favour of the Top ranked horse and another horse in the top 3 BLBL.

A horse going at ~ 8-1+ is bet Win-Place.

I am only entering races in this Contest which I also bet with real dollars. I typically bet Win and Win-Place plus Exactas. An omitted favourite (per above) which ranks well on BLBL usually is included in an Exacta Box. Of the Top 4 ranked horses, I will try to include the counter-energy horse who is not otherwise bet to Win.

I will try to elaborate on any wager decision reasoning which goes either counter to my above guidelines, or is more nuanced than I could describe. (And sometimes I just goof and make erratic decisions ...)

Ted

[Ted Craven]

PRX October 21

Race 2
$50 Win 6
$25 WP 2

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

PRX October 21

Race 2
$50 Win 6
$25 WP 2

Loss.

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race3
$50 Win 3-6

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

PRX Race3
$50 Win 3-6

Loss.

[Ted Craven]

PRX Race4
$50 Win 6-7

[Ted Craven]

KEE Race 9
$50 Win 2-5

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

KEE Race 9
$50 Win 2-5

Loss.

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

2 points or questions

First do you think my readouts are so different than yours
only because I have not changed any settings and I use Val 4 mode
Or is it the fact that your rating every horse but spliting them to win and
ITM groups, were as I only am only rating your 5 win contenders

Seconly your thoughts on using such a poor pace line for horse 9 ?



horse 9 line 1 ?

[Ted Craven]

Bill,

I believe the difference in our rankings, using the same lines, is due to Val4 mode versus Default mode, yes, and perhaps the DTV settings. Here are my Config settings. It goes around and it comes around - on the long term, I am happy with the effect of the adjustments, and with Default mode. Val4 mode (and/or your DTV Min/Max settings) triumphed in this race!



When I removed the Secondary Contenders completely, there was no change (whew!) which is how it is supposed to be (i.e. Primary group is ranked independently).



Re #9 Gruenewald - I looked several times at this horse. There were only 2 line choices for this horse in today's 6f poly sprint: line 1 or line 5. Line 5 makes it look worse (worse Perceptor). In its last race, it had a steady gain of both position and beaten lengths from the get go, beating well more than half the field. It's 83 SR was the same as its last sprint (line 5) so not aberrant. It was not a Win contender, but I had it underneath in an exacta (5-2 / 5-2-11-9). It did finish a strong 3rd and was the most Late on the E/L graph, hence my main counter-energy horse.



If a horse ranks in the Top 5 Total Energy and Primary Line Score, I have come to be forgiving of 'apparently' poor finishes if they showed some serious effort. There were plenty of other horses in that race who just showed nothing in their current form cycle, and were relegated to either Secondary or Non-contenders.

Anyway, that was my reasoning for using that last line for the #9. Comments?

I wish I had the #3 ranked higher Hope you had it!

Ted