tampa race 6 0417

[admin]

8.0 dirt 16000 clm

 
APV CR
1. 35.9%      0.45 
2. 91.8        1.00
3. 89.3%     1.39
4. 88.6%     1.56
5. 93.9%     1.11
6. 112.9%    1.30
7. 31.5%      0.49
8. 75.4%      0.97

here is the BLBL

I am hoping the 8 can do it at 10/1 ml

The race sets up for me as the 5 taking care of the 3
then either holding on or being over taken by either the 1 or the 8
my win bets are the 5 and the 8

[admin]

horse 1 last line a show at this same cl/distance

[admin]

Stopped two back
I went to line 4 but I can tell from the Speed ratings it probably does't
matter Line 4

[admin]

This looks like a early pace setter
a little rest after 2nd win in 3 races
should be ready to go

[admin]

seems a step slow
line two is a tandem with horse 3

[admin]

seems to have bounced back this year
line 2 is confirmed line 6
here is a strong contender

[froggy]

Bill,

I haven't done the race as yet but, your top BL/BL horse is in the bottom of the barrel on APV/CLASS and your top horse on APV/CLASS doesn't have a rating. Is this a solid play situation?

Froggy

[admin]

Hi Froggy
First thing thank you for the nice comments on the APv thread
I am really looking forward to the race The poor numbers for the top rfated 1 at 5/2 ML that is a good thing to bet against
I fully expect the 6 to run well I am just investing that it wont win

I'm sure it will be interresting

[froggy]

I just did the race and came up with the 1-5-8-3-2 in that order.

Any more before I bet a race I try to find solid reasons to make an investment.

As qualifiers or disqualifiers depending on how you look at it I use APV/CLASS and recent form.

The only horses that have any recent form are the 4-7-8.

The 4 just won at a lower class and may have already run his race.

The 7 has some recent form but lost in the stretch at a shorter distance big time last out only 10 days ago. There was a time when that would have been a play for me when I was more of a gambler.

The 8 in a lower class race ran just 14 days ago and was up close most of the way and gained horses and lost lengths in the stretch which could or could not be a good sign.

On this race I will pass.

Good luck

Froggy

[froggy]

Bob,

Neither the 2 or the 6 come up with SPEC160.

Not being familiar with Workhorse may I ask how it compares to SPEC160, Energy or Ultra Scan(one of my favorites)?
Is it pace based or probability based or what?

Thanks for your consideration

Froggy