Kee Poly Winning positions

[RichieP]

Something the Hat worked with me last year on with the new surface at Keeneland and it continues to pay dividends into the current meet.

go to the result charts and track the POSITIONS of the WINNING horse especially the first fractions. Then find horses in the pp's who are FAST and focus on the ones for the WIN who are similar POSITIONALLY to the winners from the pp's.

In my opinion you definitely want to consider TURF lines in the route poly races man. DEFINITELY

This I believe can help BOTH software and non software users ok?

Here are the first 2 days of Poly races broken down into simple sprint/route categories. Positions shown are the first 2 fractions from the WINNING horse in the result chart.

Hope this helps.

Sprint
8-7
2-2
8-11
6-6
9-7
3-2
7-6

Route
12-11
7-4
4-4
7-7
4-4

Richie

[RAMON201]

Looks to me like other than early is dominating so far.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by RAMON201

Looks to me like other than early is dominating so far.

It sure does Ramon. This surface sure looks to be unique. Amazing.
Richie

[RichieP]

Winning Positions
Sprints have 4 calls - 1f-2c-sc-fin
Routes have 5 calls - 1f-1c-2c-sc-fin

Sprints
5-3-1-1
6-8-5-1
1-1-1-1 - Graded stakes
4-4-2-1

Routes
5-6-4-1-1
3-5-5-4-1
10-10-10-6-1

[JimG]

Good stuff Richie. I imagine if you look at the fall of last year, you would see similar numbers. What is interesting, is I think the crowd has been slow to catch on, still playing horses on the polytrack that are in the first flight early. Has been a good opportunity for those selecting the correct closers down the stretch.

Jim

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by JimG

Good stuff Richie. I imagine if you look at the fall of last year, you would see similar numbers. What is interesting, is I think the crowd has been slow to catch on, still playing horses on the polytrack that are in the first flight early. Has been a good opportunity for those selecting the correct closers down the stretch.

Jim

Jim,
Here is a race from yesterday. It is a route so we check the route positions in the first post I made right?

We see TWO races where the WINNER raced with a 4-4 1f-1c position. That is the EARLIEST positional move we will accept on a horse being considered for a bet TODAY.

here are the lines for the horses in yesterdays 5th race. the boxes around lines show the ones I ELIMINATE because they are too CLOSE upfront ok?

here are all the lines with boxes around the initial elimns

[socantra]

Originally Posted by JimG

Good stuff Richie. I imagine if you look at the fall of last year, you would see similar numbers. What is interesting, is I think the crowd has been slow to catch on, still playing horses on the polytrack that are in the first flight early. Has been a good opportunity for those selecting the correct closers down the stretch.

Jim

You're right, this is a great thread, and I profited from it yesterday and hope to today.

I think the reason traditional handicappers (and some in the methodology) has been slow to catch on is that they have assumptions going back years that Keeneland is an early speed favoring track. It is still a speed favoring track, clocking amazing times, its just not favoring front runners.at this time.

I would like to insert a cautionary note here. This may not be entirely a characteristic of Polytrack and may not transfer to the surface at other locations. In addition to the new surface, Keeneland also widened the final turn, making it less of a bullring or hairpin configuration. They also added 100 feet to the final straightaway, making it 1235 feet, one of the longer ones among currently active tracks. Both of these changes should also lessen the advantage of early speed.

The lesson should be that as the new surface becomes more and more common, we are going to have to do as Richie has done and do our homework on the charts and our profiles and keep that information current for the track we're playing..

Dick

[Rxlawyer]

Richie:

VERY nice presentation of extremely interesting concept!

Gary

[froggy]

When you watch a Keenland race it seems like they are stumbling over each other not to be near the lead.

Froggy

[shoeless]

Houndog,Nice job on that.Jeff