Belmont Workshop

[jms62]

I heard the following from several very reliable handicappers. Contrary to what alot of handicappers feel, the Belmont does not favor deep closers. Horses that are near the lead are the ones that fair the best. With that I'm giving first crack at identifying the pace type of all horses in the race. Feel free to shoot me down..

Bluegrass Cat - P
Bob and John - P
Deputy Glitters - P
Hemmingways Key - S
High Finance - EP
Jazil - S
Oh So Awesome-S
Platinum Couple-S
Sacred Light-S
Steppenwolfer-S
Sunriver-P (S/P ?)
Double Galore EP

With that said main win contenders before cranking the numbers through Spec would be (in no order)
Bluegrass Cat
Bob And John
Deputy Glitters
Sunriver

Interested to see what the Matchup folks feel will be the pace of this race.

[tompkins]

Originally Posted by jms62

I heard the following from several very reliable handicappers. Contrary to what alot of handicappers feel, the Belmont does not favor deep closers. Horses that are near the lead are the ones that fair the best.

one has to be close to the pace POSITIONALLY, but if the energy distribution is not in the low 67 or high 66 median percentage, they run out of gas unless none in the field projects in that range.

The Editor's Note's, Temperence Hill's, Victory Gallop's and Birdstones of the world (plodders) made use of that. But then if you just OUT-Hustle everyone and have enough left (Swale, Conquistador) that works too.

[tompkins]

top four last year had the same thing in common: a median in the high 66 to low 67.

[tompkins]

similar to the winner

[tompkins]

finishers have to have this distribution to last

[tompkins]

another one close

[jms62]

It would help if you would define "low 67's" otherwise the entire field except Double Galore qualifies. But of course you are much smarter than the average person so you always give yourself plausible deniablity... Doesn't your arm get sore patting yourself on the back..

[tompkins]

Originally Posted by jms62

It would help if you would define "low 67's" otherwise the entire field except Double Galore qualifies.

you have, inadvertantly, described why I only wrote about a single entry that could not win and passed this race.

and Rhett Butler was correct when he said goodbye to Scarlette O'Hara

[tompkins]

Originally Posted by jms62

It would help if you would define "low 67's" otherwise the entire field except Double Galore qualifies. .

let's see here average of last three total energy median
and let's see who DOES NOT qualify
Deputy 161.70 67.5 OUT
High 162.35 67.3 marginal
Bob 162.52 68.2 OUT
Sun 162.76 67.1
Heming 160.49 OUT 67.6 out
Double 163.23 67.8 OUT
Steppen 162.12 67.5 OUT
Sacred 162.72 67.2
Platin 160.57 OUT 67.1
Jazil 161.68 66.9
Blue 161.06 marginal 67.4 marginal
Oh So ONE LINE 162.86 66.5 OUT

pre-race criteria met and eliminates quite a few, but leaves too many to consider.