Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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jms62 06-06-2006 12:37 PM

Belmont Workshop
 
I heard the following from several very reliable handicappers. Contrary to what alot of handicappers feel, the Belmont does not favor deep closers. Horses that are near the lead are the ones that fair the best. With that I'm giving first crack at identifying the pace type of all horses in the race. Feel free to shoot me down..

Bluegrass Cat - P
Bob and John - P
Deputy Glitters - P
Hemmingways Key - S
High Finance - EP
Jazil - S
Oh So Awesome-S
Platinum Couple-S
Sacred Light-S
Steppenwolfer-S
Sunriver-P (S/P ?)
Double Galore EP

With that said main win contenders before cranking the numbers through Spec would be (in no order)
Bluegrass Cat
Bob And John
Deputy Glitters
Sunriver

Interested to see what the Matchup folks feel will be the pace of this race.

tompkins 06-06-2006 01:51 PM

positionally vs distribution
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62
I heard the following from several very reliable handicappers. Contrary to what alot of handicappers feel, the Belmont does not favor deep closers. Horses that are near the lead are the ones that fair the best.

one has to be close to the pace POSITIONALLY, but if the energy distribution is not in the low 67 or high 66 median percentage, they run out of gas unless none in the field projects in that range.

The Editor's Note's, Temperence Hill's, Victory Gallop's and Birdstones of the world (plodders) made use of that. But then if you just OUT-Hustle everyone and have enough left (Swale, Conquistador) that works too.

tompkins 06-06-2006 07:00 PM

median at the Belmont
 
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top four last year had the same thing in common: a median in the high 66 to low 67.

tompkins 06-06-2006 07:01 PM

place the same
 
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similar to the winner

tompkins 06-06-2006 07:02 PM

again
 
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finishers have to have this distribution to last

tompkins 06-06-2006 07:04 PM

finishing the top 4
 
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another one close

jms62 06-09-2006 06:01 AM

OMG-Belmont Selections
 
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Ok... I trusted the software and hit the exacta in the Preakness.. Now I plan on looking like a total fool tomorrow at 6:35...

Top 2 Picks

6-High Finance
5-Oh So Awesome

tompkins 06-10-2006 11:44 AM

troubling
 
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Bob N John is presenting a troubling bunch of lines into today's contest.

jms62 06-10-2006 02:30 PM

"Bob N John is presenting a troubling bunch of lines into today's contest"

Not sure what you mean there.

tompkins 06-10-2006 03:01 PM

progressively earlier
 
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horse is either 1) meeting a pace that is too fast for it to handle, 2) going off form 3) animal is running at distances NOT suited for it....usually too long. of course NOT always, but it is troubling when one sees this.


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