Saturday Night Turfway Park Stakes - 3/4/17 - Race 6

[RichieP]

Looking through races having my coffee with my honey and came upon this race tonight at Turfway Park. The John Battaglia Stakes for 3 year olds going 8.5f on their Polytrack.

All comments, etc are welcome, feel free to chime in

First 2 screenshots are the entries and tandem finishes.

[RichieP]

These next 3 screenshots are taken all from the last line
1) Original lines
2) TPR
3) Segments

[RichieP]

The field

[RichieP]

horses 6-10

[RichieP]

The 11-13

[RichieP]

3 screens with my lines
1) Pace of Race = P.O.R.
2) T.P.R. including V/DC
3) Segments - showing some Early/O.T.E. matchups and finishes

[Mitch44]

Update: # 10 & #13 have scratched.
Mitch44

[lostandwon]

Richie P, thanks for posting the race.

I see lots of E. FPLR from sprinters 3 & 8 who both won up front @ 22.5 – 45
Other E are the 5 (not E last race), 4, 10, 11, see 13 getting caught up in the E

Looking OTE

Assume the sprinters will slow down a little, the 5 ran a route @ 22.9 – 46.3 2 races back and will use that as projected pace. The OTE’s are mostly routers who don’t show lines that fast.

Looking at position, I like the 9 who ran in 5th position or later in sprints and closed against fast pace but ran out of room. Looking for a faster pace today than last out when won in the route. Long shot at ml 20/1?…class issues for sure

The 12 running 6th-5th last out looks good…Again, MS 19…but it is Turfway

The 1 has some class and is certainly OTE. But last 3 races have been against 24’s which is slower than projected today & slower than lines of other horses…So I guess questions are how interchangeable are T and P lines and what about class…

Just saw 10 & 13 scr but I don’t think it changes my look

Maybe bet the 9 to place

[raceman5]

One thing I have learned about poly is you have to have some stamina besides position to win.

Think I will box an exacta 2-4-8

Win bets on the 2 -4 (8 should be the chalk)

Bob

[Mitch44]

Well a very tough race with the main speed scratching. However there is still plenty of speed in here as several sprinters are attempting to stretch out. They rate so who really knows. Then we have several horses whose last race was their best and are moving up in class. Hell even their trainers don't know what they have so why not go for it and see if you have a Derby horse.

I'll take a stand against all of them, if they beat me, oh well. Not a serious betting race but what the hell is a few bucks. Too many horses for a good write up with line picks etc. Those that always pick the last line have a shot in here as 3 yr. olds should be on the improve with their last being best.

My contenders are 1-7-12-9-8 and order
The # 1 will probably be bet down so I figure 7-12-9 should go off at a good price, small win bet and small ex. bet 1 with 7-12-9

Mitch44