Saturday Night Turfway Park Stakes - 3/4/17 - Race 6
 

Looking through races having my coffee with my honey and came upon this race tonight at Turfway Park. The John Battaglia Stakes for 3 year olds going 8.5f on their Polytrack.

All comments, etc are welcome, feel free to chime in :)

First 2 screenshots are the entries and tandem finishes.

These next 3 screenshots are taken all from the last line
1) Original lines
2) TPR
3) Segments

The field

horses 6-10

The 11-13

3 screens with my lines
1) Pace of Race = P.O.R.
2) T.P.R. including V/DC
3) Segments - showing some Early/O.T.E. matchups and finishes

No Offense Intended...
 

I don't bet this kind of race because I am lousy at them. I am primarily a Matcher and I don't know that there is enough evidence about each runner to make an educated decision.
Richie explained how "The Hat" recommended these races be handicapped in the Hat Check blog. You match the sprinters and take the best and then throw him in with the routers. For me this is gambling because I am crappy at projecting improvement in these youngsters. You want a horse with some speed to at least press the pace but you risk the front end going too fast early and then some slow S horse runs by at the end. You have to add the different surfaces to the equation and I frankly, get overwhelmed. i realize the Turf is an acceptable surface in a Poly race and vice versa but early 3 yo turf races tend to be as much learning experiences as valid indications of future proficiency.

But it will be a fun race to watch none the less.

Update: # 10 & #13 have scratched.
Mitch44

Gaaaaing Group
 

Hello Rich

The 7 and 1 will be Gaaaaaaing Ground !!!

Phase 1 and Thoromation

Attachment 42611

Richie P, thanks for posting the race.

I see lots of E. FPLR from sprinters 3 & 8 who both won up front @ 22.5 – 45
Other E are the 5 (not E last race), 4, 10, 11, see 13 getting caught up in the E

Looking OTE

Assume the sprinters will slow down a little, the 5 ran a route @ 22.9 – 46.3 2 races back and will use that as projected pace. The OTE’s are mostly routers who don’t show lines that fast.

Looking at position, I like the 9 who ran in 5th position or later in sprints and closed against fast pace but ran out of room. Looking for a faster pace today than last out when won in the route. Long shot at ml 20/1?…class issues for sure

The 12 running 6th-5th last out looks good…Again, MS 19…but it is Turfway

The 1 has some class and is certainly OTE. But last 3 races have been against 24’s which is slower than projected today & slower than lines of other horses…So I guess questions are how interchangeable are T and P lines and what about class…

Just saw 10 & 13 scr but I don’t think it changes my look

Maybe bet the 9 to place