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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-02-2014, 04:52 PM   #1
Ted Craven
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Whitney G1 - SAR 8/2/2014

Just back from the 'bush' in time for the mid-summer big G1 Stakes at the Spa - the Whitney.

My take on Graded Stakes, and G1 in particular, is that to be a Contender for Win or Place a horse must have won or been very competitive at a G1, preferably this year. Otherwise, Speed Ratings and energy-based numbers alone can mislead.

Hence the following grouping:

Name:  SAR0802-10.png
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5-1-4-3 have the best chance to finish 1st or 2nd. Of the 2 Earlies, #3 Moreno is always the monster and can almost get the 9f distance (though never quite won it). #4 It's My Lucky Day is the other Early (EP) and has not demonstrated ability past 8.5f but will press #3 who should be able to put him away. Moreno's shot at glory is if he can slow the pace enough to stay.

Because - Pressing #5 Palace Malice and #1 Will take Charge have all the Late energy to collect any too-fast pace.

From a 'race-finish' perspective, #5 and #1 can win if there is ANY amount of pressure on #3 Moreno. However, there will be NO price on either of them (and WTF with WTC - he leaves me 'wanting' this year ...).

Thus from a 'betting' perspective I will include Moreno Win/Place at the ML Odds or thereabouts, with an Exacta on 5-1-3 over 5-4-1-3

Good luck to all!

Ted
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Old 08-02-2014, 05:26 PM   #2
Hoof 11
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Sounds reasonable enough.

I am going with the 6 & 9, just because.
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Old 08-02-2014, 05:59 PM   #3
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You hit that one out of the park, nice work! You got some value to boot, you should have gone deeper with the Tri.

Well done Ted!
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Old 08-02-2014, 06:00 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Hoof 11 View Post
You hit that one out of the park, nice work! You got some value to boot, you should have gone deeper with the Tri.

Well done Ted!
One of my 60th year resolutions (deeper exotics ...)

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Old 08-02-2014, 08:56 PM   #5
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Good job Ted
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Old 08-02-2014, 05:59 PM   #6
Ted Craven
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thus from a 'betting' perspective i will include moreno win/place at the ml odds or thereabouts, with an exacta on 5-1-3 over 5-4-1-3

good luck to all!

Ted
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Old 08-02-2014, 09:32 PM   #7
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finally Moreno wins for me....in a pic 4.....trouble is the other 3 where all chalk...had two longshots run second...in the 9th and 11th...and I thought that SAR was the graveyard of favorites

Last edited by atkinsrr; 08-02-2014 at 09:33 PM. Reason: mis spell
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Old 08-03-2014, 01:44 AM   #8
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Nice job Ted ! Nice price !
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Old 08-03-2014, 10:15 AM   #9
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Nice hit, Ted.
Anytime you get a $20+ winner, you get to wear the Crown for a day!
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Old 08-03-2014, 11:45 AM   #10
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Ted, nice hit!!

Love when Pace and Cap members are making money!!

Mike
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