Whitney G1 - SAR 8/2/2014
 

Just back from the 'bush' in time for the mid-summer big G1 Stakes at the Spa - the Whitney.

My take on Graded Stakes, and G1 in particular, is that to be a Contender for Win or Place a horse must have won or been very competitive at a G1, preferably this year. Otherwise, Speed Ratings and energy-based numbers alone can mislead.

Hence the following grouping:

Attachment 38098

5-1-4-3 have the best chance to finish 1st or 2nd. Of the 2 Earlies, #3 Moreno is always the monster and can almost get the 9f distance (though never quite won it). #4 It's My Lucky Day is the other Early (EP) and has not demonstrated ability past 8.5f but will press #3 who should be able to put him away. Moreno's shot at glory is if he can slow the pace enough to stay.

Because - Pressing #5 Palace Malice and #1 Will take Charge have all the Late energy to collect any too-fast pace.

From a 'race-finish' perspective, #5 and #1 can win if there is ANY amount of pressure on #3 Moreno. However, there will be NO price on either of them (and WTF with WTC - he leaves me 'wanting' this year ...).

Thus from a 'betting' perspective I will include Moreno Win/Place at the ML Odds or thereabouts, with an Exacta on 5-1-3 over 5-4-1-3

Good luck to all!

Ted

Sounds reasonable enough.

I am going with the 6 & 9, just because. :)

You hit that one out of the park, nice work! You got some value to boot, you should have gone deeper with the Tri.

Well done Ted! ;)

One of my 60th year resolutions ;) (deeper exotics ...)

T

:)

Good job Ted

finally Moreno wins for me....in a pic 4.....trouble is the other 3 where all chalk...had two longshots run second...in the 9th and 11th...and I thought that SAR was the graveyard of favorites

Nice job Ted ! Nice price !

Nice hit, Ted.
Anytime you get a $20+ winner, you get to wear the Crown for a day! :D

Ted, nice hit!!

Love when Pace and Cap members are making money!!

Mike