New Pace with RDSS

[shoeless]

Ted,

I have a question for you how would you go about tying in the New Pace readouts with the RDSS screens.Or would New Pace just be a stand alone handicapping tool.

[Ted Craven]

Some folks have discussed that very point in a few recent posts (check the one started by Pino re MNR).

Since VDC, for example, hits approaching 80% Top 3 and ties for Win, one of the NewPace contenders which is NOT also top 3 ranked VDC is likely a lesser chance for Win. Also, recency has a high impact value, according to stats by For The Lead and also Dave Schwartz, I believe. A NewPace contender off for 190 days is a lower candidate for Win or Place (and declining bet for Show as well).

That's off the top. Others have reported a good co-relation between EPR and LPR, and thus also between the classic E/L Differential.

You could use NP as a stand-alone black box, but ties always need breaking and contenders ranked highly because of not-recently-duplicated performance can be down-graded or eliminated - if you approach this on a consistent basis.

Some ideas to get the ball rolling ...

Ted

[Dave Schwartz]

Also, recency has a high impact value, according to stats by For The Lead and also Dave Schwartz, I believe.

Not sure where you got this idea, but my answer would be "No, they do not have the IV edge normally attributed to them."

Episode 3: How Big a Factor is Recency?
http://thehorsehandicappingauthority...ing-episode-3/

Or here on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFB7agqTF-k

[Ted Craven]

Dave,

Would you then be in disagreement with the following statistics:

"Over a recent 2 year period"

WIN PLACE
77% 75% raced in the last 30 days
88% 85% raced in the last 45 days
92% 89% raced in the last 60 days
95% 91% raced in the last 90 days

97% 94% raced in the last 187 days

"Over the past couple of years, which takes in over 80,000 results"

75% of place horses have run in the last 30 days
85% of place horses have run in the last 45 days
89% of place horses have run in the last 60 days
91% of place horses have run in the last 90 days

If not, well this is the degree of recency I was referring to.
If so, I welcome your alternate summary.

I will get to those links of yours ASAP.

Ted

[Dave Schwartz]

Look at the IV column and tell me if you think there is a lot of difference.

[shoeless]

Ted,


How would you go about using it with EPR and LPR?


I saw Pino's posts that were very good and was trying to figure another way of getting it down to 3 horses instead of just kicking the favorite out.

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Ted,


How would you go about using it with EPR and LPR?


I saw Pino's posts that were very good and was trying to figure another way of getting it down to 3 horses instead of just kicking the favorite out.

Yes , I too was wondering this, and thought that using the VDC, BL/BL to help narrow it down to 3 contenders, especially if you to box them, it would be more economical for me to do so, as playing 12 ex-boxes ate up my small bank money quickly, and even further more if one was to win wager on them too, as I did,

Granted my session plays were with small BR and it only took 1 race to bet 20 ( a 1/4 of my bank ), 4 win wagers and 1 ex-box, and I was defeated quickly, but I feel that having come back here and staying in touch with what RDSS has been doing in EL 2.0, it seems that I kinda jumped into the pool before it filled up completely , and the results posted during the studies being done here , do look promising, so this time plenty of caution, but I can not wait to get in and try a few things out.

Great Job Ted

[mikesal57]

jeff & pat...

if I can recall...if out of the 4 contenders there are 2 at low odds..pass

in other cases, win bets on over 4-1 horses and 4 horse box ex...

this still can come out to $20 a race

[shoeless]

Mike,

The problem there is if you can catch a big number on top of a low odds horse ex still can be very profitable.

[gl45]

This past winter Jeff and I were talking about different tracks and he point me to Turfway Park. I have few races that I'm black boxing as I did with MNR method. I have 21 more cards to go.