Penn Natl Race 5 12/18

[mikesal57]

Post Time @ 8:23

Heres another ...

If anybody is wondering how and why I choose a race....

I look for a non-maiden sprint with a nice size field and hopefully a fast track
also a late race so that enough people have time to look at it
I know some people like Penn...so maybe they'll chime in too..

good luck

mike

[barb craven]

Morning Mike.

I've picked up Penn now that Woodbine is closed and have been having some luck there.

Unfortunately, I can't play and post at the same time, I find it's disastrous for me, but I'll be thinking of you and will look at your posts when I have a chance.

Have you noticed that Parker, the jockey, has moved from Mountaineer to Penn. I find that whatever horse he is on gets bet down to nothing.

I have found that the later races are better too.

Havae a good day.

Barb

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by barb craven

Morning Mike.

I've picked up Penn now that Woodbine is closed and have been having some luck there.

Unfortunately, I can't play and post at the same time, I find it's disastrous for me, but I'll be thinking of you and will look at your posts when I have a chance.

Have you noticed that Parker, the jockey, has moved from Mountaineer to Penn. I find that whatever horse he is on gets bet down to nothing.

I have found that the later races are better too.

Havae a good day.

Barb

Hello Barb

Yes I too find Penn a lot better although turf and poly lines
do get to be troublesome

D Parker I think is headed to AQU, maybe just stopping over at Penn

Good Skill
and I hear you about posting and working races at the same time
its tough for me too

[justin13892002]

Mike,

Thanks for putting another one up. I will do my best.


Line chosen for each horse

1---2 Back
1A---2 Back
2---Last race
3---Last Race
4---Last Race
5---Last Race
6---Last Race
7---Last Out
8---4 Back
9---Last Out
10---2 Back



Gained and lost lengths at pace

1---45.1---111.4----Gained 1
1A--45----110------Lost 1
2---45.1---110----Lost 7
3---46.4---111.3----Lost 1
4---45.4---111.1---Lost 7
5---45----110.3----Lost 6
6---44.4----111.3---Gained 1/2
7---45.4---111.1----Gained 3
8---45.2---110.2---Even
9---45.2---109.2---Lost 2
10--44.2---109.2---Even


The eliminations should be 1-3-4-5-6. The 1,3,4,6 were gaining little or lost lengths against slower pace. The 5 is eliminated due to Losing 6 lengths against mediocre pace. Keeping the 7 as the Biggest gain, even though pace was just mediocre.

The 2 should probably be eliminated next, as lost many lengths against 110 pace, which others have done okay against.

The 1A should be eliminated next, losing Tandem to #10, where the 1A was no better than 6th at any point in that race.


Top 4 horses are 7-8-9-10.

Again, you can stop and put thses 4 horses into your software and let it do the crunching, but again I don't use software.


I will continue for those who dont use software.

The 8 should be the next eminated, as again, lost the tandem with #10 in last, and was no better than 5th, which was at the first call.


Contenders 7-9-10.

7---45.4---111.1----Gained 3
9---45.2---109.2---Lost 2
10--44.2---109.2---Even


I would then probably eliminate the 7, as the 7 although gaining, raced against a SLOWER pace than he will face today.

The 10 seems to be the all around fastest finishing 2nd at the 109.2 pace.


The selection is 10.


Good Luck

[raceman5]

Justin for another lesson. So if i am understanding this rt todays race is 6f so we pick a line at 6f. so if the last race is 6f thats the line we use? even if his 3 races below that had faster half mile times. Example, horse last race at 6f was run in 46, race below that was run in 45, we use the 46 line being that was his last race at 6fur? Now what if the last race the horse had at 6f was a troubled line, would u still use that?

Bob

[mikesal57]

good questions Bob..

Justin to save time...can u give us some "what ifs" that you think we might ask or that you have ran into

mike

[gl45]

there is only one MU, "The HAT" MU.
All the others references not using 100% "The HAT" guidelines are not MU, just proficient methods which might incorporate some of The HAT ideas, that's all.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by gl45

there is only one MU, "The HAT" MU.
All the others references not using 100% "The HAT" guidelines are not MU, just proficient methods which might incorporate some of The HAT ideas, that's all.

Pino..true..but the bottom line is....PROFIT!!

like u said

[mikesal57]

and my opinion from what I've seen and read and tried...no one can do what that man has done..so 100 % ...forget about it

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by gl45

there is only one MU, "The HAT" MU.
All the others references not using 100% "The HAT" guidelines are not MU, just proficient methods which might incorporate some of The HAT ideas, that's all.

I would have to agree gl, that there is only 1 Jim Bradshaw. But that said, NOBODY can do what he did. NOBODY. He has vision like nobody else, and everybody on here will agree, nobody can pick winners like Jim.

With that said, I derived off his ideas, instead of matching up how the horses will setup the race, my idea makes it so that you can see IF the pace is SO and SO fast, only these horse can be close...

I am in no way saying it is the "matchup". Everybody on here has tried "the matchup" with moderate success, mostly due to the fact Jim was an expert at what he did, and I really dont think many can re-create his actions. Its the same idea, just different approach.

Mike, and the rest that are following along, I will be posing selections today from time to time, using my version. Feel free to stop by and chime in. Wish you all luck today.