Out of context BEWARE - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 03-07-2008, 11:27 AM

Good horses are opportunists and they (along with their riders), REACT to what is given to them. If you look at Pyro's last three race e/l's you will see a classic example of SAMPLE ERROR in the Risen Star. That pace was so slow up front, that a simple sprint late skews this horse out of it's normal energy pattern leading one to believe future races might run that way.

Horses are more creatures of habit.

Tim Y · 03-07-2008, 11:53 AM

If you look at this preliminary incremental deceleration page again you see the skewed race. The last race as a two year old looks better.

03-07-2008, 11:27 AM	#1
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Out of context BEWARE Good horses are opportunists and they (along with their riders), REACT to what is given to them. If you look at Pyro's last three race e/l's you will see a classic example of SAMPLE ERROR in the Risen Star. That pace was so slow up front, that a simple sprint late skews this horse out of it's normal energy pattern leading one to believe future races might run that way. Horses are more creatures of habit. Attached Images

03-07-2008, 11:53 AM	#2
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	another view If you look at this preliminary incremental deceleration page again you see the skewed race. The last race as a two year old looks better. Attached Images

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Beware Of The Big Win Horse	shoeless	Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum	26	08-18-2007 03:11 PM
Saratoga Turf Beware	shoeless	Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum	8	08-10-2005 07:26 PM