New Pace with RDSS

[shoeless]

Ted,

I have a question for you how would you go about tying in the New Pace readouts with the RDSS screens.Or would New Pace just be a stand alone handicapping tool.

[Ted Craven]

Some folks have discussed that very point in a few recent posts (check the one started by Pino re MNR).

Since VDC, for example, hits approaching 80% Top 3 and ties for Win, one of the NewPace contenders which is NOT also top 3 ranked VDC is likely a lesser chance for Win. Also, recency has a high impact value, according to stats by For The Lead and also Dave Schwartz, I believe. A NewPace contender off for 190 days is a lower candidate for Win or Place (and declining bet for Show as well).

That's off the top. Others have reported a good co-relation between EPR and LPR, and thus also between the classic E/L Differential.

You could use NP as a stand-alone black box, but ties always need breaking and contenders ranked highly because of not-recently-duplicated performance can be down-graded or eliminated - if you approach this on a consistent basis.

Some ideas to get the ball rolling ...

Ted

[Dave Schwartz]

Also, recency has a high impact value, according to stats by For The Lead and also Dave Schwartz, I believe.

Not sure where you got this idea, but my answer would be "No, they do not have the IV edge normally attributed to them."

Episode 3: How Big a Factor is Recency?
http://thehorsehandicappingauthority...ing-episode-3/

Or here on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFB7agqTF-k

[Ted Craven]

Dave,

Would you then be in disagreement with the following statistics:

"Over a recent 2 year period"

WIN PLACE
77% 75% raced in the last 30 days
88% 85% raced in the last 45 days
92% 89% raced in the last 60 days
95% 91% raced in the last 90 days

97% 94% raced in the last 187 days

"Over the past couple of years, which takes in over 80,000 results"

75% of place horses have run in the last 30 days
85% of place horses have run in the last 45 days
89% of place horses have run in the last 60 days
91% of place horses have run in the last 90 days

If not, well this is the degree of recency I was referring to.
If so, I welcome your alternate summary.

I will get to those links of yours ASAP.

Ted

[Dave Schwartz]

Look at the IV column and tell me if you think there is a lot of difference.

[shoeless]

Ted,


How would you go about using it with EPR and LPR?


I saw Pino's posts that were very good and was trying to figure another way of getting it down to 3 horses instead of just kicking the favorite out.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Look at the IV column and tell me if you think there is a lot of difference.

I'm sure there is valuable context to your chart in the video link you provide, which I'll get to, but I'm afraid I can't grasp the impact of your chart to say other than: if faced with an Early or Late contender, off say 190 days, I am less likely to treat it as an equal opportunity to Win (or put equal weight on it on top in Exacta combinations) than I would for any other NP contender returning sooner. That was what I was referring to earlier as recency being impactful, perhaps 'impact' having a different meaning than you mean: I'll hit far fewer > 180 day Layoff horses than < 180. I have many other tools in the bag to help downgrade putative NP contenders, and that was the original question.

Another factor to consider (responding to shoeless' initial query) is that some of the High SRs may come from compromised or non-equivalent races: a horse last week running at DMR (who Bill commented on, can't remember who??) looked swell as a ES% #1 and E1 contender but earned the high rating in a 4f dash last year in a DMR maiden race. at elast using TrackMasters's SRs, that high rating was not equivalent to other high ratings, and the odds, other RDSS readouts and the result were all consistent (finished poorly).

Unless you're just pumping through the volume of races with little analysis (one way to go), even a little other comprehensive handicapping lets you qualify usually at least one of the 4 NP contenders - and lessens the bet cost. It seems.

Ted

[Dave Schwartz]

190 days off I totally agree with. And it shows in the chart.

But most people try to draw a line at (say) 30 days and that is clearly (according to the table) folly.

Dave

[JeffH]

I clicked on the link in the RDSS 2.0 program for the New Pace program; but all I saw was the video seminar. Is the program included in this or is this just the seminar discussing the software?

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by JeffH

I clicked on the link in the RDSS 2.0 program for the New Pace program; but all I saw was the video seminar. Is the program included in this or is this just the seminar discussing the software?

Jeff,

Dave Schwartz' NewPace is a video seminar, not software. RDSS 2.0 has a new software component which implements the NewPace rules and concepts ('cause doing it by hand is murder and we have races to win!)

The link is to a blurb which gives an overview of NewPace in RDSS2, and the link there is to Dave S' online store if you'd like to buy his video seminar. You need to buy that seminar (i.e. pay Dave for his work) before you can use the RDSS 2.0 NewPace software module.

If that's you interest, just send me the email receipt from Dave when you buy it (if you do).

Cheers,

Ted