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Jim i am glad you posted this.
Everything you say in that post, i need to read twice a day from now on. When i lose a race, i sometimes see the horse as impossible, so what do i do ( sometimes) i cahnge my thinking and proccess in order to MAKE this horse look like it was a good thing. That can ruin a handicapper. Im steadiluy starting to learn that when im wrong, understand i was wrong in THAT race and the next race i do check every possible thing i can to make sure im making a SMART descion. As you said, i may make a smart descion and still lose, but over the long haul, smart descions pay more than lots of lucky wrong descions. Id rather be a good handicapper with a tad of luck, not a bad handicapper with luck that will lead me down the wrong handicapping path
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