Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead
By way of "confirming" my previous post, I'll just say that I do my own adjustments and etc.
Someone wrote to me and asked about my take on the derby. In response, I simply provided them with the "top 5" (25% of the field) in a few categories.
Unlike most people, I am concerned with each horses "early" position. The top 5 in that category were #'s 3,6,14,15,19, in post position order. I did not consider #9 (Trinniberg) as this horse was just an annoyance in this race.
I also provided them with the "top 5" horses based on final time. Those horses were the #'s 5,6,8,10,19, again, in post position order.
You can see three things from this;
1 - the winner and the second horse were among the 5 best first call position horses.
2 - the winner, place horse and show horse were among the the 5 best final time horses.
3 - the #11 and #15 were NOT among the top 5 final time horses
So these findings tend to confirm the findings through ENERGY.
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Thanks for your response,
Yes, I can verify the first call position and final times and what you have stated in points 1.2 and 3 of your post is absolutely correct. I admit I did not look at those times originally (Which is an absolutely must going forward) as I used the rankings from RDSS. I am also re-posting the panels for all the representative horses. I made a judgement call to use line 2 for # 19. Had I used line 1 for #19 I would still get a TE# 0f 163.xx which does not alter the question for me which is..........
How does the program that you and Bill used specifically compute Total Energy ????
As I understand RDSS simply computes Total Energy = F1 + F2 +F3.
Using the data for Horse 15 (2nd panel below)) TE = 56.9 + 54.6 + 53.8 = 165.3 (RDSS shows 165.2 which may result from rounding)
Your program resulted in TE = 159.xx (Siginificant Difference). This was critical for the Derby as your program correclty eliminated the 11 & 15 horses from contention.
So now I am not comfortable with this situation.
Ernie