Quote:
Originally Posted by mrhug
The number one thing I am struggling with is when to pass a race. Thanks again for all the help you give.
Merry Christmas to you and yours.
Melvin
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Besides the obvious reason of passing when you can't get a decent price, my suggestion is to pass when there are too many unknowns. Just how many is "too many" will depend on the situation.
For example, in the Kentucky Derby, unless there is a foreign-based entry, chances are that none of the horses will have gone the distance. Thus, all are unknowns and one takes one's chances.
But take a race like the January 5 race #6 at AQU...
The 2 horse has never been in a route.
The 4 horse shows no dirt routes.
The 5 horse shows no dirt races at all.
That's three unknowns which in this case are too many for me. Sure, I could force a play, among the dirt horses the 9 horse looks fairly good and the morning line is 7/2.
On top of that, my own decision model for the distance does not show any top-ranked factor to achieve a 40% or better win percentage.
Meanwhile, at six furlongs, the top ranked CPR and BL horses have been winning at a rate of 48%. As long as I can get fair odds, that's where I focus. That's my comfort zone. I'm of the mind that anyone can up their winning percentage just by learning what to avoid.