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12th Ky. Derby
Unlike recent years where the obvious best couple horses towered over the field, this year is full of good horses and like 3 year old's many in here are rounding into form so many unknown factors today. Best course of action is to go for a price.
Normal numbers etc. I have this 15-18-1-19 for the life of me , I can't believe the # 15 is 15-1 & with such a tough field will probably go higher.
Unknown factors follow, your choice:
2 Has improved w/ each race, top unk.30-1
4 Throw out last Baffert & 50-1 B on 17%
7 Foreign 20-1
8 3 pars won 3 of 4 top? 15-1
10 Foreign 30-1 w/o over track
11. On improve, increasing SR, won 3 of 4 routes. 20-1
12. B on 22% Mott 8-1
14. 3.5 pars, no slouch, Baffert 20-1
15. 4 pars , 2 for 3 for Brown 15-1
16. 4 pars, plus 6 SR 30-1
18. + 13 SR, 3 pars 6-1
19. B improvement (1) trainer 29% w/ repeaters where norm is about 17%, w 3of 4 routes. 30-1 which is crazy, good jock & trainer combination B improvement (1) expect more improvement.
Don't take a short price. I'm alive with Oaks & Derby DD
Best of luck on a real challenging card.
Mitch 44
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