Protocol, Protocol, Protocol
 

Protocol, Protocol, Protocol

The most important thing in this process is to identify your protocol and stick with it. But to do that you need to be sure the probabilities are in your favor. When we lost BPP and PL, I went on a quest to find out if I could identify factors that were as good or better. I hit on the BL/BL rank as having the Key horse 95-99% of the time depending on track, distance and surface. Since the return of PL and BPP, others have suggested that using the top 5 of those or other ratings are better. That is great, I have no investment in either, I just want to encourage you to establish a protocol based on probabilities and use it every time. In addition, make sure that you have a fair idea of the probabilities each and every time.

My protocol and the data you look at when you look at my work is based on:

A. My data that says 95-99% of the time the top 5 BL/BL horses contain the key horse.
B. The “arrow” horses contain the key horse 80-83% of the time. Thus we are looking at identifying the key horse in 5 out of 6 races. That is pretty powerful data.
C. All of our data is based on using the pace line selected by the "Best Perceptor, Last 3 Comparable (default)".

My protocol is to identify the top 5 BL/BL horses every time. (If you don’t do this you will find that the arrow horses will change when you don’t narrow the field. Try it a few times and watch what happens.)
So,
1. Select the top 5 contenders for the Key horse using whatever you statically believe will produce the highest rate of Key horses. But be solid in your stats. Don’t just do the change in a feeling. (We as pace handicappers have been guilty of that for years. Know your probabilities.)
2. Know that in 5 out of 6 races the Key horse (the horse statistically most likely to Win or Place is one of the “arrow” horses.
3. The decision for the key horse is to determine which of the arrow horses best fits the pace scenario as we previously discussed.

Lets look at a whole card at Saratoga. We will look at races with at least 6 runners and no more than 2 FTS.
Sar1 Maiden with 5 FTS
Sar2 Maiden with no horse having more that 2 lines. 2FTS I just don't trust the output when horses have zero or one line.

Sar 3
Attachment 53589

Sar 4
Attachment 53590

Sar 5 Only 4 Runners

Sar 6
Attachment 53592

Sar 7 9 First Time Starters

Sar 8 7 First Time Starters

Sar 9 5 First Time Starters

Sar 10
Attachment 53591

Protocol, Protocol, Protocol Pg2
 

Our last two Races for the Day.

Race 11
Attachment 53593

Race 12
Attachment 53594

6 playable race on this card and our arrow horses had a key candidate in each of the 6. We can’t ask for better opportunities than that. We must hold to our protocol. Top 5 BLBL (or whatever we choose.) Then the arrow horse that best fits the pace scenario. With 2, 3, or 4 companions we can get some nice exactas.

Protocol, Protocol, Protocol.

Thank you very much for posting that very helpful

Jeff