I wrote this on 27 Jan. 2015:
The fallacy of value.
Horseplayers have locked into what today is defined as value because of a proliferation of shorter priced horses brought about by the computer era. The very word value concocts a notion of big money and longshots through a subconscious power of suggestion. Players who drink this Kool-Aid are destined for failure.
What players don’t realize is that like favorites all longshots aren’t created equal. Just like false favorites there are false longshots. It not the odds that make a horse a winner but rather weather it’s a viable contender as determined by your handicapping.
In the 60’s 70’s Burton P. Fabricand, Ph.D. wrote two books about horseracing titled: Horse Sense 1965 & The Science of Winning 1979 which by the way are still available through Amazon. I’ll save you some money here as the gist of his writings is that he conducted mathematical studies and found or verified that horses win in proportion to their odds. In other words there are more 9-1 horses that win as compared to 15-1 horses. Even favorites in that the lower the favorites the more likely the horse is to win. I.e. there are more $ 3.20 winners than $4.80. Bookmakers have known this fact for years and as they took bets would adjust their odds to create better odds on others to entice more action to balance their books. Note: see the chart below.
Table converts win odds into a horse's actual percentagechance to win the race.
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What this chart says is that if you bet 10-1 horses you’lllose 91.91 or 91% of the races you play and win 9. As you can see the higher the odds the less likely a horse will win.
The word value should be replaced by the word overlay because an overlay is determined by your handicapping not an arbitrary odds or the chasing of fool’s gold. You better have some good reasons for betting a 10-1 horse such as having in your top three contenders. Yesterday on 26 Jan. 15 the 6<sup>th</sup> at FG paid $26.80 , Lt1, Appy and I all had it and none of us talked before the race but we all had it in our top 3. Now that’s an overlay and not a value horse. The horse also keyed a nice DD of $109.Overlay yes, value no.
Sadly the worst drinkers of the value Kool-Aid seem to be Black Magic users who forgo handicapping and zero in on value because their mind steers them to value / odds rather than overlays as they pursue their instant gratification. Like a drug once their hooked the hole is so deep they can’t get out but more importantly they have become condition to a behavior that enhances failure. The cure is quit the insanity while honing your skills and change your mindset. In the 60’s I read a book titled Psycho-Cybernetics which the gist of it is to steer one’smind toward something which actually works. Athlete’s latched onto this and used its concepts to train by visualizing their performance. i.e. Batting abaseball visually was just as effective as actually doing it.
Jimmy “The Hat” Bradshaw was so good at picking winners, I told him; “You must be killing exactas.” to which he replied; “No Mitch for some reason the racing Gods don’t let me win exactas as I get a lot of first and thirds with them.” Later in talking to him he was so proud that he was doing so good with rolling DD and P-3 that came into vogue. Bottom line is to play to your strengths and take what a race will give you and let the public make the mistakes.
Galen G. Mitchell
AKA Mitch44