Delmar Variants This year
 

I've noticed that almost all horses that ran early at Delmar this year were compared to the very slow track speed from last year. So most of the sprints have a variant of from -20 to over -30. The result is that, unless you handicap without adjustments, the computer way over values a Delmar race run in virtually the same time as a Hollywood or Santa Anita race.

Other than taking lines from Hollywood and Santa Anita to compare to, how are successful players accounting for horses legitmately coming into form at Delmar compared to their last few races?

In the example below the SA race is just a little faster, but the TPR and energy are off the charts for the Dmr race!!!


Thanks,

Bill

Del Mar variants
 

Good work. Did you report these findings to the F.B.I. ?

Race 3 Del Mar
 

Just hit Race 3 at Del Mar. The 4 horse paid $15.80 to win and the Exacta paid $21.50. I used the 6th line from Santa Anita. I think Pace line Selection is 90% of this game. Perhaps the Trackmaster numbers are wrong or skewed.
Did you mention your findings to TrackMaster?

I see
 

Race 5 #10 Excessive dreamer. Wins his last race at 5.5 in 46 110 flat on the lead. 8 Minutes to post. Do these other horses hammer this horse or will this horse on the lead use his 24 second late speed? 21-1 If this horse is around the lead they better watch out Sadler 30%. Interesting.

Bet across the board.

I understand that TM reviews races periodically for conformance with their variants. When that happens they restate variants appropriately. Unfortunately, it takes a while for the pattern to develop. I wasn't necessarily complaining, just asking how, players who are successful at Delmar, handled the adjustment.

Bill

Postings
 

That is why I do not post very often I always am taken the wrong way. Let me make amends. You are the man and everything you post is very interesting to me. My 10 horse in the 5th race grabbed the lead and was run down at 30 to one. Match Up theory. When a horse is forced to run faster at the beginning of the race it will cost him at the end. Perfect example.

1 minute to post RUMBA ALONG

Magnificience
 

Fish or Cut Bait. This horse wins or its dead last.

3 minutes to post 7-5 I will pass the race.

You can't win betting the Favorite and you can't win betting against the Favorite.

This took me 10 years before I understood what this meant. Why play these races when you can cherry pick and make money on easy races that will pay make a living wages. Some people love throwing money away.

Midnight Lute
 

The Midnight Lute is 3-5 pass the race for the win. Race 8

Del Mar race 9
 

Military Storm 13-1

across the board. Yes I know that there are 2 other speed horses in the race and will probably hook up and burn each other out.

1 minute to post

Race 10
 

Longshot

9 horse Delosvientos Horse cutting back in distance. Will have the lead.

3 minutes to post 19 to 1

Del Mar pick six
 

Simon Bray is alive for $10,000 dollar pick six if the 3 horse wins. I hope he gets it.

My bet is on the 1 horse Black Wolf at 7-2

My 9 horse did not get the lead and ran up the track. You can't be right all the time.

6 min to post good luck.

Hey Jig
I have a few bucks on the 3 in this 9th race coming at Mountaineer in 8 minutes. Maybe his 3 can carry across to where I am?? Lol

Last bet of the day. Mnr9 #3 Out with the Tide
Ote

went at 19/1 missed 2nd by a head.Does me no good. Too far back.

Mountaineer - Race 9
# Win Place Show
10 $8.40 $4.40 $3.00
6 . $5.40 $3.20
3 . . $5.80

Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$2.00 Exacta 10-6 $53.00

pick six
 

Simon got 5 out of 6 for $958.00.

recap my day Emd and Dmr

looked at 21 races passed 11 races

bet 10 one horse betting.

hit 4 out of 10 for the win 15.80 7.80 6.40 7.80. Using minimum 2-1

bet $20.00 a race total $200.00 got back $378.00 minus my bets $178.00
profit. R.O.I. .89% I will take that any day.

Emerald was sloppy but it didn't seem to matter.

Jigsaw

Bill did anyone ever answer your question?