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11-01-2011, 08:22 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Tuesday night -- MNR 7th
Mountaineer Park Changes
Tuesday November 1, 2011 The Main Track condition is now: Fast The Turf Track condition is now: None The weather at the Track is now: Clear, 40's Race: 7 1 Indian Footsteps Has been scratched (part of entry) 2 Dynabox Will run 5 lbs overweight 4 Kitty Afleet Will run 3 lbs overweight 5 Bold Ballado Will run 2 lbs overweight http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_541592.pdf |
11-01-2011, 08:58 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Here's everybody, sorted by the quickest first fraction:
This is how they project at the 4F marker: Ideally, I like to get it down to five horses if I haven't already done so. Here the #2 is an easy tossout. I'll live with looking at the remaining six contenders. Based on the Sartin TPR guidelines everyone within 5 points of the top TPR is a win contender (there are exceptions, but I won't go into that here). Here are the rankings: Certainly #7 Cats Zip looks like a pretty good play at 6-1 morning line odds. #1a, #3 and #4 are the ones I'd consider for a second win bet. Feel free to jump in. Contrasting opinions welcome. :>) PS-You don't have to use old software. RDSS, matchup or plain old fashioned handicapping are fine. |
11-01-2011, 09:32 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Odds at two minutes to post:
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11-01-2011, 09:43 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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I bet #7 and #4 to win.
To me that was the obvious play. Didn't win, but I'm okay with that. I remember Dr. Frank Wallace saying about poker, "Every hand well played is a victory, regardless of the outcome." As far as I'm concerned I played properly. |
11-01-2011, 11:01 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Ended on a happy note hitting the last race at MNR. Had the win & place and the exacta.
Guska's Gold had a 5 point TPR advantage. Not to toot my own horn, but to mention the win and place...whenever the top TPR has a 5 point advantage it generally works out to bet him to win and place rather than betting a second horse to win. Here the #5 paid $18, but if it went off at 4-1 with a 5 point advantage I'd still bet him to win and place as opposed to a second win bet. Something for you to consider at least. |
11-02-2011, 05:31 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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David,
Nice way of showing how you did the race and nice hit in the 9th. Jeff |
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