Pace Line

[Bill V.]

Here is horse 9 I questioned the use of line 2 as an aberrant line
The 87 speed rating seems high for this horse

Here are the Plus or Plus in a zero lines except the two 8.5 turf lines
which I feel are run differently and the good 5.5 line.

These a KGen graphs and readouts

Line 2 has the best total energy but line 1 is rated better

This screen is the all important kexdc rating the readout to the very left tells the difference

[Bill V.]

These graphs list the line preference but also can be used
as I am showing here how a horses lines look

Line 1 and 2 are very similar I suspected an arrant
line 2 yet Line 1 is rated better both EXDC and SP
despite a difference of 6 speed rating and almost 2 point total energy

[Bill V.]

Here are lines 1 and 2 isolated

Line 1 startsout slower but over takes line 2 in the 3rd fraction



Its a close finish

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Here are lines 1 and 2 isolated

Line 1 startsout slower but over takes line 2 in the 3rd fraction
Attachment 24497
Attachment 24498

Its a close finish

Attachment 24499

Bill, today's race is 7 furlongs on the dirt, so we would only be interested in 6 races on the page, which are the 6 sprint races on the dirt.

The route races on the turf are good for one thing and that is to note that while the horse was running at a higher class level in those races, on a different surface and at longer distances, it was maintaining its' form. The horse was very much in contention at the second call in each of those 4 races. Ok, back to the 6 sprint races on the dirt.

You expressed concern over the line 2 speed rating of "87". Well let's look at all 6 of those lines. The speed ratings are 87,83,81,77,75,73. Naturally, the three best speed ratings produced the three highest TE's for the horse. Those three TE's are 2 points apart. And the top two TE's are just .6 points apart and those two races are the two races the horse won. So is line 2 really out of line?

[alydar_ David]

My two cents, looking only at the past performances I'd have used the last line.

[Bill V.]

Im with you David

Line 9 has a 83 speed rating but has less total energy . This will kill it if it uses it total energy EARLY
at near 70% in a NW4L 7.0 race ! Line 9 is aberrant
the question here is line 1 or 2 ?

Line 1 and 2 are close KGEN says line 1

To me its In form its recent and represents how the horse runs well

Bill

[atlasaxis]

Thanks to the sharing over on the paceline selection thread I've gotten this fossil of a software to perform the best it ever has for me. TY all

[GARY711]

[quote=Bill V.;74961]Here is horse 9 I questioned the use of line 2 as an aberrant line
The 87 speed rating seems high for this horse


Bill:

Great post, I'm a rookie at Sartin, appreciate the info.
Just to let you know, my friend was part of a syndicate that owned
CR before this game gelding dropped into the claiming ranks

I actually finished in the top five in a handicapping contest when CR
won a race in a three way photo finish(my friend advised CR
was in "tough" that day).

[mikesal57]

[QUOTE=GARY711;75046]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Here is horse 9 I questioned the use of line 2 as an aberrant line
The 87 speed rating seems high for this horse


Bill:

Great post, I'm a rookie at Sartin, appreciate the info.
Just to let you know, my friend was part of a syndicate that owned
CR before this game gelding dropped into the claiming ranks

I actually finished in the top five in a handicapping contest when CR
won a race in a three way photo finish(my friend advised CR
was in "tough" that day).

Gary...If you want a good read on the numbers part of the game
try..Tom Brohamer's "Modern Pace Handicapping"...

Mike