Tuesday night -- MNR 7th - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 11-01-2011, 08:22 PM

Mountaineer Park Changes
Tuesday November 1, 2011
The Main Track condition is now: Fast

The Turf Track condition is now: None

The weather at the Track is now: Clear, 40's

Race: 7
1 Indian Footsteps Has been scratched (part of entry)
2 Dynabox Will run 5 lbs overweight
4 Kitty Afleet Will run 3 lbs overweight
5 Bold Ballado Will run 2 lbs overweight

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_541592.pdf

alydar_ David · 11-01-2011, 08:58 PM

Here's everybody, sorted by the quickest first fraction:

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This is how they project at the 4F marker:

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Ideally, I like to get it down to five horses if I haven't already done so. Here the #2 is an easy tossout. I'll live with looking at the remaining six contenders.

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Based on the Sartin TPR guidelines everyone within 5 points of the top TPR is a win contender (there are exceptions, but I won't go into that here).

Here are the rankings:

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Certainly #7 Cats Zip looks like a pretty good play at 6-1 morning line odds.

#1a, #3 and #4 are the ones I'd consider for a second win bet.

Feel free to jump in. Contrasting opinions welcome. :>)

PS-You don't have to use old software. RDSS, matchup or plain old fashioned handicapping are fine.

alydar_ David · 11-01-2011, 09:32 PM

Odds at two minutes to post:

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alydar_ David · 11-01-2011, 09:43 PM

I bet #7 and #4 to win.

To me that was the obvious play.

Didn't win, but I'm okay with that.

I remember Dr. Frank Wallace saying about poker, "Every hand well played is a victory, regardless of the outcome."

As far as I'm concerned I played properly.

alydar_ David · 11-01-2011, 11:01 PM

Ended on a happy note hitting the last race at MNR. Had the win & place and the exacta.

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Guska's Gold had a 5 point TPR advantage. Not to toot my own horn, but to mention the win and place...whenever the top TPR has a 5 point advantage it generally works out to bet him to win and place rather than betting a second horse to win.

Here the #5 paid $18, but if it went off at 4-1 with a 5 point advantage I'd still bet him to win and place as opposed to a second win bet.

Something for you to consider at least.

shoeless · 11-02-2011, 05:31 AM

David,

Nice way of showing how you did the race and nice hit in the 9th.

Jeff

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11-01-2011, 08:22 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Tuesday night -- MNR 7th Mountaineer Park Changes Tuesday November 1, 2011 The Main Track condition is now: Fast The Turf Track condition is now: None The weather at the Track is now: Clear, 40's Race: 7 1 Indian Footsteps Has been scratched (part of entry) 2 Dynabox Will run 5 lbs overweight 4 Kitty Afleet Will run 3 lbs overweight 5 Bold Ballado Will run 2 lbs overweight http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_541592.pdf

11-01-2011, 08:58 PM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Here's everybody, sorted by the quickest first fraction: This is how they project at the 4F marker: Ideally, I like to get it down to five horses if I haven't already done so. Here the #2 is an easy tossout. I'll live with looking at the remaining six contenders. Based on the Sartin TPR guidelines everyone within 5 points of the top TPR is a win contender (there are exceptions, but I won't go into that here). Here are the rankings: Certainly #7 Cats Zip looks like a pretty good play at 6-1 morning line odds. #1a, #3 and #4 are the ones I'd consider for a second win bet. Feel free to jump in. Contrasting opinions welcome. :>) PS-You don't have to use old software. RDSS, matchup or plain old fashioned handicapping are fine.

11-01-2011, 09:32 PM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Odds at two minutes to post:

11-01-2011, 09:43 PM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	I bet #7 and #4 to win. To me that was the obvious play. Didn't win, but I'm okay with that. I remember Dr. Frank Wallace saying about poker, "Every hand well played is a victory, regardless of the outcome." As far as I'm concerned I played properly. Attached Images

11-01-2011, 11:01 PM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Ended on a happy note hitting the last race at MNR. Had the win & place and the exacta. Guska's Gold had a 5 point TPR advantage. Not to toot my own horn, but to mention the win and place...whenever the top TPR has a 5 point advantage it generally works out to bet him to win and place rather than betting a second horse to win. Here the #5 paid $18, but if it went off at 4-1 with a 5 point advantage I'd still bet him to win and place as opposed to a second win bet. Something for you to consider at least.

11-02-2011, 05:31 AM	#6
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	David, Nice way of showing how you did the race and nice hit in the 9th. Jeff