Beware the slow early pace lines

[Tim Y]

One of the things I see in other handicappers all the time is missing
races where the early pace was SLOW. Remember what Huey Mahl used to
say: for every unit energy expended early it takes TWO to make up for
it late. At many tracks I would extend that to three of four, BUT it
is based on some logic the other way as well. Mahl wrote that we
should all try and experiment to show how faster or slower early pace
affects both people and horses. He says :"Run around your block twice
and then have a friend TIME the last 25% of that run each attempt. On
the first run, go out very slowly and then run as fast as you can that
last 25%. Rest for abut 15 20 minutes and try it again, but THIS time
have a 16 year old youngster push you hard the first 25% and then
still try your best to come home as fast as you can that ast 25% for
the timed section.

You WILL be slower in that last 25% after being pushed hard early than
when you went out slow early. The answer is fatigue and lactic acid
build up. By expending too much energy early you simply have less
available late. This is true in the thoroughbred as well: If a horse
is not pushed, it will produce late moves that are better than they
look. IF you see a great close on a great pace (a la Aldebaran,
Turkoman or Lit de Justice) that line QUALIFIES for consideration. On
the other hand, if an animal gets the "gift" of a half in a sprint,
lets say, in 47 and then comes flying home, that is a BIG FALSE positive.

Bottom line: there is much more in the tank if you dd not spend too
much early.