|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum General Handicapping Discussion |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
04-28-2009, 06:18 PM | #1 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
|
helps to review at Derby time
Each grouping will have the winner, place and show horses.
Each horse will have it's last three lines with the following total energy, % median, e/l true speed and deceleration. The idea is to observe the maturation and/or development of these types that you might again find this year. NOTE how few even hit the board with very high decelerations i.e >100 Charistmatic 164.16 67.1 -21.2 54.6 98.2 160.78 67.7 -13.9 53.4 95.2 162.47 68 -11 53.9 93.9 Menfee 162.92 67.6 -15.4 54.2 95.8 161.64 67.4 -17.2 53.9 96.2 162.62 76.5 -12.1 54.2 95.9 Cat Thief 162.94 68 -8.7 54.1 94.1 161.96 67.6 -14.9 53.8 95.8 161.66 67.6 -12.1 53.8 94.9 Fusaichi Pegasus 163.70 67.6 -13.7 54.5 95.5 162.49 67.8 -10 54.2 94.2 162.27 67.7 -11.5 54.1 94.8 Aptitude 162.64 67.3 -21.1 54.1 97.1 163.15 67.3 -16.4 54.5 96.3 161.14 67.5 -18.7 53.7 96.1 Impeachment 162.78 67.2 -25.5 53.9 98.5 162.55 66.9 -26.9 54.0 99.4 162.00 66.2 -45.1 53.7 103.1 Monarchos 163.41 67.9 -12.1 54.2 98.7 162.80 67.9 =11.5 54.2 94.6 162.47 67.4 -16.7 54.1 99.6 Invisible Ink 161.61 68.3 -4.2 53.7 92.5 160.80 68.3 -4.1 53.5 92.4 162.80 67.5 -15.5 54.1 96.1 Congaree 163.64 68.2 -4.5 54.1 92.8 162.88 67.5 -14.8 54.3 95.8 162.91 67.9 -8.0 54.3 93.9 War Emblem 162.82 67.5 -23.0 54.2 98.7 160.12 68.7 -11.5 53.9 94.7 160.13 67.3 -6.6 53.6 93.4 Proud 162.68 67.5 -15.5 54.1 96.2 160.42 68.7 0.5 53.1 90.7 160.13 67.3 -17.9 53.5 96.5 Perfect Drift 162.26 67.4 -16.4 54.2 96.2 163 37 68.2 -6.9 54.1 93.1 161.85 67.4 -16.7 54.3 96.5 FUNNY CIDE's is pending Giacomo 161.78 67.7 -16.3 53.7 95.8 163.16 67.9 -9.7 54.2 94.6 161.69 68.5 -2.9 53.7 91.6 Afleet Alex 162.12 66.5 -28.3 54.1 100.4 159.50 68.0 -7.5 53.2 93.4 AA was sick here 161.25 67.3 -19.5 53.8 96.8 Closing Argument 161.29 69.0 3.5 53.3 89.8 this one ran the race of his life and knocked him out all Summer 161.22 67.8 -10.0 53.7 94.1 160.33 68.7 3.3 53.5 89.8 Smarty Jones 162.83 67.6 -12.5 54.3 95.3 163.17 66.5 -27.5 54.5 100.4 162.1 67.7 -9.3 54.2 94.6 Lion Heart 163.42 68.0 -6.0 54.5 93.4 162.17 68.0 -5.8 54.1 93.1 162.55 67.9 -9.0 54.1 94.1 Imperialism 161.88 67.6 -16.8 53.7 95.8 162.80 67.6 -17.0 54.1 95.8 162.87 67.2 =24.2 54.1 97.9 Barbaro (This was the year the speed rating chnaged) 165.03 67.7 -12.0 54.8 95.4 164.93 68.6 1.0 54.7 91.3 162.80 65.8 =38.0 54.3 103.7 (turf) Steppenwolfer 162.91 68.6 -4.1 53.9 91.7 165.26 66.9 -21.8 55.0 98.9 162.45 66.7 -26.2 54.3 99.3 Bluegrass 165.01 69.0 6.3 54.7 89.4 166.17 66.7 -25.0 55.2 100.1 165.24 67.1 -19.2 55.1 98.0 Street Sense 163.68 64.6 -54.7 54.6 110.1 This was the first Blue Grass on polytrack 166.93 66.7 -26.5 55.6 100.2 166.41 66.3 -31.6 55.6 101.5 Hard Spun 164.26 67.6 -11.4 54.7 95.2 165.05 67.8 -10.5 54.7 95.0 165.67 68.2 -3.0 55.1 92.8 Curlin 167.62 67.1 -17.5 55.9 97.8 166.95 67.4 -14.0 55.5 96.7 164.28 67.4 -14.0 54.8 96.2 Big Brown 166.78 68.2 -1.0 55.6 92.4 166.0 68.1 -3.3 55.4 93.0 TURF 163.79 65.9 -35.0 54.7 103.1 Eight Belles 166.79 66.8 -23.0 55.5 99.6 165.09 66.6 -26.3 55.0 100.4 162.52 66.6 -23.7 54.6 98.8 Denis of Cork 163.79 66.8 -23.0 54.4 99.0 165.52 67.5 -18.2 55.0 96.2 159.82 66.6 -31.0 53.2 100.4 (Fair Grounds) Look for improvement. If a colt is out of balance for style they can make up for it by total energy: Barbaro, Hard Spun or the Brown one. I will try to find Funny Cide
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
04-28-2009, 06:21 PM | #2 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
|
I found no higher energy coming into this race than Curlin's. I investigated Secretariat's years ago and, without a variant, he came in around 166.6
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
04-28-2009, 06:32 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Tim:
Thanks, just what I was looking for |
05-04-2009, 01:05 AM | #4 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
|
First let me say I looked at this one and then let the "class conscious, OLD hat mental images" cloud what I reviewed in the previous posts. I would never have bet this one, BUT I have bet many other races that were similar. What were the parameters I listed and tell me what this one's ENERGY DISTRIBUTION, and NOT TOTAL ENERGY said about this one is a field of CLOSERS. Disregard how he ran Saturday and JUST look at the energy profile this gelding presented.
The e/l's are right in line and given how extremely fast early that last line was, the jump in e/l is characteristic of a pace that was just too quick.
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
05-04-2009, 06:46 AM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 798
|
Quote:
|
|
05-05-2009, 10:38 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,258
|
The Perfect Storm
I think many things happened on Derby Day that may have contributed to the outcome.
#1 Late Scratch - I Want Revenge #2 Several Horses not running their races for whatever reason (Friesan Fire; Dunkirk) #3 Was the original plan to hold back on Mine That Bird and come late. I think after the bad break Borel wisely changed tactics. This is to take nothing away from the winner or anyone who had the horse. My point is that changing tactics may have actually helped this horse. Last edited by Houndog; 05-05-2009 at 10:42 AM. |
05-05-2009, 11:51 AM | #7 | |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
|
Quote:
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
|
05-05-2009, 12:56 PM | #8 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: near Philadelphia Park
Posts: 259
|
Quote:
About 10-15 track and stakes records were set that very first week, if memory serves me well. Even as late as in the Fall of 1973, Secretariat would set the still-standing mark for 1 1 -8 miles (1:45 and so) winning the Marlboro Cup Invitational -- a record also set by a champion, Desert Vixen, winning the Grade 1 Beldame Stakes. Her track record stood for all of about 30 minutes, which was the race just prior to the Marlboro Cup run on Sept. 15, 1973. Secretariat's 1 1-2 mile track record set in the historic Belmont Stakes was three full seconds faster than the previous mark -- set in 1957 when Gallant Man won his Belmont Stakes. Tim, making a variant to adjust Secretariat's energy profile in the Belmont is probably tough but if you can accept making the track variant as fast you can and still 'live' with such a quick variant, it will work out just dandy, I am sure. |
|
05-05-2009, 01:02 PM | #9 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
|
I am well aware of that track in New york as no less than 15 track records were set in 1973
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 05-05-2009 at 01:11 PM. |
05-05-2009, 01:49 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 223
|
Mike (Houndog):
I hope that you are doing well? I totally agree with you. The fact that I want Revenge was missing and the track was a sloppy mess, in my opinion, I believe that essentially all horses were having a tough time with the sloppy conditions, although Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man, Papa Clem and Chocolate Candy all factored as some thought they might at races end. Add all of this in with the fact that the inside rail was very biased and the Borel Factor on the right horse at the right time with the Incredible Trip that he took him through and "what else can be said"! Will he ever again be able to duplicate that incredible turn of foot under somewhat normal conditions? I don't know, but, I think that we will be finding out soon enough. I look forward to seeing his (MTB's) next few races, that's for sure. The Perfect Storm is Right!! Take Care and Good Skill. Vinnie
__________________
"All human error is impatience; a premature renunciation of method". F. Kafka |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Release Notes - Version 0.98.7 | Ted Craven | RDSS Info, Reference | 2 | 07-17-2009 11:09 AM |
Time to Pause/Recharge! | Ted Craven | RDSS | 0 | 12-30-2008 05:33 PM |