New Profiles, Tracks to play, Feedback Loops

[Ryan.p.coli]

For those of you who have not seen any of my posts yet, I am relatively new to the Sartin Methodology. I am an RDSS user, and a believer in both the methodology and in RDSS as a the Modern Sartin Methodology Application.

That being said... getting started is not easy.

First of all, I spent a ton of time building a track profile for Santa Anita, only to realize that yesterday was the last racing day until the fall meet. I'm assuming the data compiled from SA won't be indicative of the track when it re-opens....

The good news is, I built a data dump from RDSS excel exports that automates the entire data entry portion, and can easily be used to build other track profiles (I'm pretty good with excel although I'm not the best with VBA). Building track profiles going forward should be significantly less time consuming. There is no need for keeping separate tabs and files for different distances/tracks as all data can easily be filtered with a pivot table for min, max, average, median outputs. If anyone has interest in learning more about how to do this, shoot me a note and I would be glad to help you through it.

My questions to you:

1. What tracks do you all play and why? I've seen several people post about Woodbine, PRX, Penn National, and Santa Anita. I generally prefer the flashier tracks (Del Mar, Saratoga, SA, Keeneland). I've read here that the length of their meets generally makes it less worth keeping records for these tracks.
2. Does anyone have any tips for starting a profile? I can tell you right now, being such a massive fan of data is somewhat annoying considering I have none.
3. Say you pick a certain paceline for a horse, but after the race, you realize that it wasn't the most indicative paceline to the race today. Do you then go back, and select the proper paceline? I find myself wanting to do this, but realizing that consistency in paceline selection is so key, that it would tarnish the credibility of my data.
4. Does anyone want to partner up and share track profiles? IE: We each divide a couple tracks throughout the summer, compile our data individually (albeit using the same profile template), and then share them weekly throughout the racing season? I would do this myself, but I am in a hurry to get this info and analyze the results.

Let me know if anybody has any thoughts.

Thanks,
Ryan

[mowens33]

Ryan, I am fairly new also, and I do agree with you that RDSS is a very powerful tool when it comes to picking contenders and determining the pace of the race.
I had been making models for Golden Gate (I was handicapping Santa Anita but found that the low payout, in my opinion due to a significant speed bias was making it hard to make money).
I know handicap Woodbine and have found that the track is pretty honest.
I attached a spread sheet that contains only winning pace lines from the distance that the horse is running that day. I also attached others to give you a idea as to how I use the information.
I invite anyone to review and comment.
Thanks, Mike

[Bill V.]

Hi Mike and Ryan

Ryan all I can tell you is I have a very big involved database from Parx
but It did not start out big The best thing to do is start small. Just track a very few factors then slowly start to add other things
as you feel you need more. I started out just keeping trak of the EPR and LPR early late difference now after 1.5 years I have many factors
but I added new ones over time not all at once. Keep it simple I think its best to make your own models - profiles
You will see that understanding 1 track will help you with the match up and energy distribution for any track
If you just look at a few winning pace lines from that track.


Mike your work looks good. I do sort of the same thing with my Parx database
Its a model - profile combo - I track many factors. The data is only from the result for the winner of the race. There are only a few bits of info I keep track of in regards to pace lines. the first is if the winner comes from a plus or plus within a zero race in its most recent race at a comparable distance and surface and competition level. I also keep track of days since the last race. I always run the last line for a winner to see is EPR LPR and TPR early late and energy in the race proceeding the winners effort . I then run the winners result line and get the
EPR - LPR and TPR - Early Late energy from the win itself. I know you can not do this with RDSS2, yet
I do this with Entropy but soon you will be able to do it with RDSS2.

I see you have a Running Style factor. Is this your visual assessment of the winner or is it the RDSS2 generated running style or is it from the energy
excretion from the pace line you used ?

Thanks
Bill

[Ryan.p.coli]

Mike-

Thank you for posting that. I was analyzing layoff times/%median/EPR by distance until 2AM last night. My wake up for work this morning was not fun.

Question for Mike and Bill-
When you keep this data, do you use the paceline used to project this race? Or do you use the last line?

Mike- I noticed for a couple winnners, there was more than one line included.

Bill- It sounds like you just use both the most recent line and then punch the actual race info into entropy... is that correct?

[Bill V.]

Bill- It sounds like you just use both the most recent line and then punch the actual race info into entropy... is that correct?

Hi Ryan

Once I know the results of the race I enter the splits and BL of the winner into Entropy I add the readouts into my database
I then look at the winners last pace line and enter that line into Entropy
and see how it used its energy in the race that proceeds the win.
I do not model this yet, but I plan on adding it soon
For now I just make a mental note of how often horses with a early energy
excretion running line repeat -- NOT too often --- by the way


For fun I will pull up a horses PP from any track, or if somebody post a PP on pace and cap. I run the win line and compare its readouts with the line just before the win.

I am trying to get in to the book of world records as having hand entered
the most pace lines ever into a Sartin program

Its nice to be a little odd

Bill

[mowens33]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Mike and Ryan

Ryan all I can tell you is I have a very big involved database from Parx
but It did not start out big The best thing to do is start small. Just track a very few factors then slowly start to add other things
as you feel you need more. I started out just keeping trak of the EPR and LPR early late difference now after 1.5 years I have many factors
but I added new ones over time not all at once. Keep it simple I think its best to make your own models - profiles
You will see that understanding 1 track will help you with the match up and energy distribution for any track
If you just look at a few winning pace lines from that track.


Mike your work looks good. I do sort of the same thing with my Parx database
Its a model - profile combo - I track many factors. The data is only from the result for the winner of the race. There are only a few bits of info I keep track of in regards to pace lines. the first is if the winner comes from a plus or plus within a zero race in its most recent race at a comparable distance and surface and competition level. I also keep track of days since the last race. I always run the last line for a winner to see is EPR LPR and TPR early late and energy in the race proceeding the winners effort . I then run the winners result line and get the
EPR - LPR and TPR - Early Late energy from the win itself. I know you can not do this with RDSS2, yet
I do this with Entropy but soon you will be able to do it with RDSS2.

I see you have a Running Style factor. Is this your visual assessment of the winner or is it the RDSS2 generated running style or is it from the energy
excretion from the pace line you used ?

Thanks
Bill

Bill, thanks for taking the time to review! The running style is generated by RDSS2

[mowens33]

Originally Posted by Ryan.p.coli

Mike-

Thank you for posting that. I was analyzing layoff times/%median/EPR by distance until 2AM last night. My wake up for work this morning was not fun.

Question for Mike and Bill-
When you keep this data, do you use the paceline used to project this race? Or do you use the last line?

Mike- I noticed for a couple winnners, there was more than one line included.

Bill- It sounds like you just use both the most recent line and then punch the actual race info into entropy... is that correct?

Ryan, I do a couple of things (refer to +85 male). The first tab (chart) is just a visual reference of the race I am handicapping. The second tab is for the winner of the race that I handicapped, at this time I am only entering winners (where I used a pace line of the distance that the horse is running that day). For instance if I used a 7F line in an 8.5F race I do not add that winner to tab 2. Tab 3 (WIN) are only lines from the distance the horse is running today, and looking down at the past performances I take only winning lines from that distance. This way a get a picture of what is winning at that particular RC rating at that distance.
I may have some duplicate races on the master sheet (shouldn’t be too many), I need to clean that up.
Easier to catch on the individual RC spread sheets.
I hope that makes sense?
Here’s an example were I took 4 races from a past performance:

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by mowens33

Bill, thanks for taking the time to review! The running style is generated by RDSS2

Mike
So in the screen shot you showed Ryan You would note Girls Got Soul as a P
because that is what RDSS shows ? on its PP's

[mowens33]

Bill, that's correct.

Thanks, Mike

[mowens33]

I see your point, I will go back and take a look at that.

Thanks, Mike