Contender Selection Situation (Apr 13, 2013 - OP Race 4)

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by NeedForSpeed

A question just came to me and I would love to hear from anyone on it. FTL it looks like you have a rule about not going back past 90 days for a pace line. So here in the case of Nehro would you automatically toss him out? With this being a distinct possibility and him being such a favorite in the public betting is this a good betting race?

I have two 90 rules or you could call them guidelines if you prefer.

1 - Any horse without a race in the last 90 days is a NON CONTENDER.
2 - I only use a line if it occurred in the last 90 days, otherwise the horse is a NON CONTENDER.

The database information I gave you in my above post is the reason for these rules/guidelines. Like the statistic I noted on ML 20/1 or higher, horses that have not run in the last 90 days or horses without a good comparable line in the last 90 days also fit into the same scenario.
It's not the "needle" I'm looking for, it's the haystack! There are many, many terrific prices without "going fishing" for them.

As far as the favorite that has not run in the last 90 days is concerned, yes, I would eliminate the horse as a non contender as far as I am concerned, however, I will still look at the horse AND at the rest of the field. If I cannot find a horse "I believe" can win the race, I will pass the race. This is true in every race I look at. I will always look at the favorite and determine if I can beat it or not. I will look at what is "right" with it and I will look at what is "wrong" with it. In order for me to bet against the favorite, I have to believe I can beat it. Since I never bet on a favorite, I am either confident I can beat it and bet against it or I pass the race.