Sartin Methodology, any comments?

[For The Lead]

I saw this on another site and thought it may be of interest in one way or another. Feel free to kick it around.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=85242

[Bill V.]

Thanks benzer and Tom for you comments
To me it sounds like the poster took a third party quote
probably out of context and is trying to say that what was once will always be.

.

Its 1975 You are one of 20 convicted felons. You are in deep trouble and the only way to avoid going to jail is to listen to a doctor who tells you he knows nothing about how to win horse races either, not only that but you 20 truck drivers who all are proven non winners, but The Doctor feels you could win as a group

The task the Doc Sartin offers the group is to tell him what factors are needed to win

They give him a laundry list of factors The first goal is to narrow down
the list to a group that gets the winner in the top 4

over time Doc and the group discover that pace is the best factor
and take off from there This is just a building foundation of the very early groups treatment.

That is what I feel is the context of the posters article
But to bash the whole methodology is an easy hate

Bill V.
out of hours till 5 am

[Ted Craven]

It would have been helpful if the original article referred to were cited verbatim, rather than merely summarized and reported, possibly erroneously. I have never heard of that 67% winners in top 4 ranks of a given factor stat - from any Sartin literature and doubt it was cited correctly. The top 4 post-time odds win more than 67% - any particular handicapping factor has to do way better than that.

I think benzer summed it up in his reply about what the early goals were:

Originally Posted by benzer

Out of all the Sartin material I've read I don't remember reading anything about 67% winners in the top four. Maybe I missed that part.

The way I understand it the goal was to have the winner in your top 4 or 5 90% + of the time and you should be cashing in on the winner 65 - 67% + of the time betting 2 horses to win over a 20 race cycle.

I'm not sure if the 65-67+% figure is true today, or even relevant - ROI% is the important figure from whatever your hit rate is. You may figure the winner among your Top 2 of whatever various factors you rely on 2/3 of the time, but many of those races will not be bettable, at least in the win pool for that race.

Now, I do not keep decision models, currently, but numerous people have shown me theirs or posted them here, and several factors, at different tracks, surfaces and distances - exceed 70% Top 2 ranks, at least over 20-40 races short term. Or, if not certain factor ranks, then certain ranges of values, for example Early/Late Differential. That's still not as eye-popping as it might sound because you do still have to turn those measurements into profitable betting decisions.


Ted

[Bill V.]

Thank you. Ted. Thank you paceandcap. Now

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

I have never heard of that 67% winners in top 4 ranks of a given factor stat - from any Sartin literature and doubt it was cited correctly.

OK, I stand corrected! That was stated in Tom Brohamer's book Modern Pace Handicapping (page 110) on the Methodology. It was a good start, and a scientific approach at the time (mid to late 70's). We have moved way beyond that today.

Ted

[fasteddy]

Here's the link to article the quote is taken from. Scroll down to Compound Pace Ratings:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/stati...brs&header=off

Context certainly changes what that statement is saying.

[grvaden1]

Does anyone on this board use the "All-Ways" system?

Gerry

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by grvaden1

Does anyone on this board use the "All-Ways" system?

Gerry

Welcome to pace and cap

I used it wayback I remember needing some kind of phone modem
It took forever to down load a $15 dollar card!

I saw Sartin numbers and brohammer readouts and read about them in the newsletters that came in the MAIL!
I had no idea who Doc was or what the numbers were about

seems like so long ago

Anyway to answer your question, Yes I have used Allways
but not really anything serious

GS
Bill V.
I 25 Albuquerque New Mexico
Pasico Norte BLVd
General Mills bobtail only truck lot
spot 617

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

General Mills bobtail only truck lot
spot 617

Is that some sort of code Bill? Do I need to buy some Tootsy Fruitsy ice cream and a couple of code books to come up with Sun Up - the horse that I was going to bet on anyway.

For those who may think that the above is code, think of the Marx Brothers in A DAY AT THE RACES.

[Bill V.]

Hi No its not a code.
You made me laugh with the Day At The Races movie refereance
I am not touting horses 6 1 7 and 1 2 5
LOL

No just letting friends and family know where I am and that I'm doing ok
and that I am missing them .

posting from a very hot
Wichita Falls
Texas
287 southbound