Factor X

[Bill V.]

I have only been here 3 days so I'm not sure
From what I have seen watching all the races on the poly
( I don't calculate maiden races) but I watch them positionally

I think factor X is a good Primary readout to watch
To my eye Watching the dots (like they have at Woodbine) on the big infield
screen, The winning horse have to be close early and have a good late kick
The track seems to favor horses like this. If you are too far back at the
2nd call you have too hard of a surface to close on

I started tracking factor X 1 and 2 horses I'm looking forward to
going over some more recent cards and the few left this year

remember factor X is the first and third fraction Look for a balanced FX
and FW

here are yesterdays non maiden dirt races
Races 3 6 and 8

Horse 3 won wire to wire in race 3 FX # 1
Horse 10 won race 6 from just behind the leaders at the turn FX1 Tier 4 !!!
Horse 1 won the 8th race to show nothing works all the time
But I bet the # 2 horse that just missed finishing second
The 1 and the 2 ran just like the 10 in race 6 just behind the front runners
and took over in the third fraction

Something to think about
Thank you

Bill

[RichieP]

VERY interesting bud.

In a million years I would never put things together like you did above! That means I have to look at this

Amazing connection

[RichieP]

Bill
Quick question please.

Are you paying any attention to how the "FX" was earned? Are you looking at the 1f and 3f to see how he got it?
Thanks
Richie

[Bill V.]

Yes Rich I am but only from the early late graph
I see the stick

I really have trouble with fractions

Bill

[Bill V.]

Well I have to do more work

Del Mar is really nice The turf races are nice
I did well in the sprints The Problem is the route races
is almost imossible for me coming from the Philly- monmouth- saratoga
scene to work races with a mix of dirt- turf and poly surfaces

Nice visit but for me there is no place like
home

Thank you for sharing my fun time at Del Mar

[Turbulator]

Bill, how are early horses doing at DMR sprints? Do you see many wire-to-wire victories?

Does early speed kind of die and fade to the back of the pack, or does it hold on the best it can?

[lsosa54]

Only time they've had a chance is at 6F and you need a lone early type match up. All other sprints, including 6f for the most part, have been running sustained. I've seen 2 or 3 wire to wire wins at 6f.

When I say sustained, I mean from a deceleration standpoint and regarding style designated by computer, not necessarily visual running style. As an example, this horse was designated sustained by the kgen and it was my 2nd sustained horse on EXDC. However, it was also my top horse on EXDC, which simulates a normal deceleration pattern, so it was the best of both worlds. It did wire the field and pay $17.80 in a dirt mile , R7 at DMR today. I used a turf line to evaluate as that's all I had. Trainer hits at 18% with the turf to poly move so I figured it would take to it fine. Again, wire to wire wins have not been typical at a dirt mile either.

My contenders were the 1,2,4,7.

[lsosa54]

Now here's the 9th at DMR today, where the top sustained computer (tied) choice visually ran sustained. My contenders were the Sky Cape tandem horses plus the 4/5 favorite Gio Ponti. I did take a look at the foreign horse but decided he hadn't shown anything in a G2 and his last 3 races were sour.

I left Sky Cape in the computer but as the tandem winner marked him as a no bet for win. I used both of Gio's lines with the same results. Turf has been playing sustained esp. at 1 1/8 miles, so I put win bets on Madeo and Nownownow and walked away. I still don't find it easy to bet into a 4/5 favorite when no one else is close but the SP screen has been dominant.

I was happy with the $23.60 win mutuel - one of these days I'll play exactas properly.

I used the tandem lines for all contenders except Gio and did not use either of the tandem concepts - either giving all contenders the final beaten lengths of the tandem winner (zero) OR going back for another pace line. I felt the lines were representative as is and I don't like making up lines except in a couple of special situations.

I also upgraded the chances of my 2 bets slightly given the fact that both had been forced to steady early in the tandem races. The "Designated Place Horse" did place as the 4/5 fav and the other SP screen horses other than the tandem winner filled in the 1, 3, and 4 slots.

The exacta was 31.90, the tri 240.10 and the super 1203.80, but I'm just not comfortable branching out yet. Like "Capper" in the last phase of the Follow Ups, I'm trying to concentrate on win betting and profit.

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

The exacta was 31.90, the tri 240.10 and the super 1203.80, but I'm just not comfortable branching out yet. Like "Capper" in the last phase of the Follow Ups, I'm trying to concentrate on win betting and profit.

That's a good decision. Most handicappers make the fatal error of spreading out all over the place with gimmick bets. That was a major leak of mine back in the day.

They will look at the exacta payoff and say to themselves, "man, I could have had that. Those were MY two horses!" But gamblers use selective reasoning. We often fail to take into account all of the times that we would have missed--and what that would have cost us. This is where record keeping comes in, and why you must keep detailed, accurate records. The numbers don't lie. All you have to do is take a look at the bottom line once in a while to bring yourself back to reality.

Master win betting first. If most people followed those four words their results would improve dramatically.

Exacta wagering will never go away, and will always be there to learn. I'm an exacta player from way back, but I'm on the same page as you. When I feel I'm a first class win bettor then, maybe, I'll attack the exacta. There is good profit in the exacta, but it requires a different way of thinking about things--a different mindset. You'll have longer dry spells. The second best win bet is rarely (although not always) the best place horse. In a sense, exacta wagering could be summed up as "Place Win Betting." Think about it. That's a tough proposition.

If the time comes where you become an excellent place horse picker, you then have to spend a lot of time thinking about bet construction. It's vital to properly construct your wagers, and the way to do that is to give a lot of thought to all of the possible combinations and scenarios that can take place--what they will cost--and how much you want to spread your money around. It's not as easy as it looks. It's much more difficult than just going to the window and getting a three-horse exacta box. There will be many times when you have to be willing to make "cold" exacta wagers and just go with the outcome.

The exacta wager provides great leverage, but you have to be very careful that you don't get "leveraged" out of your money.

[lsosa54]

Good thoughts Steve. I've built my bankroll nicely through win betting at DMR mostly with a tad of SAR. I don't do this full time and sometimes I get a bit distracted with running errands etc. and sometimes all I can play is a couple of races after work.

Consistency, discipline, and the courage of your convictions is definitely necessary as is the ability to bounce back from a loss quickly. I'm much better at controlling my emotions now at 54 but still need work at times, esp. when I make a dumb mistake. I also believe Richie's "quieting the mind concept" passed down by Jim, no matter how one chooses to do it, is very important when handicapping.

I still marvel at how outstanding contender separators most of Doc's programs are and I'm sure Ted's RDSS is the same way. The "designated place horse" concept seems too simple but the 2nd fraction horse after adjustments does end up in exactas quite a bit using the preplay screens in Thoromation.

One thing I've also benefited from is learning to hold myself accountable for results that don't work out my way rather than saying "damn program" because if you're objective about it, the programs are excellent and it really is the user. Yes, there is some chaos involved in any race but if you've got enough lines and are solid in contender selection, "mistakes" are one's own responsibility. I've also learned to be easier on myself when there's just no way I could have anticipated a particular result.

Anyone (advertiser or not) who says this endeavor is easy is clueless and has not tried to build a bankroll race by race, win betting. Like a stock, you move it up, move it down, but hopefully each plateau is higher. That's why the 20 race cycle and/or Dave Schwarz's session concept is very beneficial.

It is tough, it is a grind, but man, I love it.

Have a good holiday. Lou