What really matters?

[Mitch44]

There's no doubt that recency isn't what it use to be and we as handicappers encounter more and more layoff horses.


As the length of the layoff increases the % of wins do drop and the number of horses also. The norm is that most layoff horses are in the 30 to 90 day range. I consider anything over 30 to be a layoff. My own definition.


I treat them all the same regardless of the time of the layoff and the way I treat them I outlined in post # 55. These 30 to 90 days horses do frequently or will come up in your readouts and must be dealt with.


Additionally if I'm betting serious money I evaluate all runners in the race and if a long layoff horse I treat it the same way as a 30 to 90 days horse. It either comes up or it doesn't.


My 30 to 90 day procedure has worked very well for me so I'm not about to abandon it. Hope this clarifies my position as far as layoff horses.


Mitch44

[The Pook]

""Doc" Sartin guideline of using the best line of the last 3 at a similar distance and surface. The key word there is SIMILIAR which may take you to line 4,5 or further back."

Here is a live one today from FL. Using the above guideline this puts you on the 9th line back. The 9th is the best preceptor of four available fast routes. Which puts this horse atop the BLBL.

Pook

[Mitch44]

Pook: I would use line 9 but Lt1 would probably use L 2 or L 4 with more recency. While not having all the readouts to make an informed decision based on the fact it came up
in the top 3 BLBL and its odds I would at least put a couple $ on it. It also may come up with one of the other lines.


Mitch44

[Mitch44]

After answering your question I went to see if the race went off yet and it had.. The # 4 finished 3rd and went off 7-5 so I probably may not have bet it at those odds. The winner went off at similar odds and today was obviously better.


I wouldn't punish the horse for running in sprints and its obvious by its charts that its a router. I use a consistent approach wherever that takes me is where I go. It works for me. As I said Lt1 may have used a more recent line and that works for him. Any of these 3 lines may have put him in the top 3 and sometimes a closer line doesn't.


The "Doc" tried to stay within 5 lines. It is a fact that the further back you go the least predicative the line. Normally going back happens more with turf horses than dirt because during in the winter their form gets darkened without turf racing if they remained up North. But as in this case it can be on dirt also.


Your free to stay within Sartin guidelines of within the last 5. I believe that most horses will have to run their best race to win and the competition most times force horses to do that. Horses with close finishes pretty much are all out. I go where it takes me and I've been successful and I'm not about to change. If your not comfortable with it stay within the top 5 lines This isn't a very frequent occurrence where I have to go back that far. But yes I would have used line 9.

Mitch44

[Bill V.]

hello Pook
I see you put quotes around Doc's quidlines
I don't recall where you got this or from where it came from .
I do recall in many folow ups " Use the best speed rating (adjusted)
of the last 3 or 4 races at a comperable distance surface and competition level.
By competition level we mean total energy,If there is 1 intervening paceline you go down to line 4 2 intervening, go to line 5, but never more than 5 lines, You will/could be looking at a horses in a completely different form cycle"

Doc used the Adjusted Speed Rating but broke ties and whenn 2 or more lines looked the best with the F6 Paceline indicator, which in reality is what the preceptor readout is.

In the 4th race doing nothing but hitting the automatic on RDSS2.1
Which uses Doc's actually paceline guidelines very well , we see

The low odds horse # 4 is downgraded off line 2 a similar distance and track
and competition level .

The winner # 6 is rated far and away #1 on RX3 and BLBL

[Bill V.]

RDSS2.1 auto selected lines
RDSS2.1 never selects past line 3

[Bill V.]

4 5 6









blbl

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

hello Pook
I see you put quotes around Doc's quidlines
I don't recall where you got this or from where it came from .
I do recall in many folow ups " Use the best speed rating (adjusted)
of the last 3 or 4 races at a comperable distance surface and competition level.
By competition level we mean total energy,If there is 1 intervening paceline you go down to line 4 2 intervening, go to line 5, but never more than 5 lines, You will/could be looking at a horses in a completely different form cycle"

Doc used the Adjusted Speed Rating but broke ties and whenn 2 or more lines looked the best with the F6 Paceline indicator, which in reality is what the preceptor readout is.

In the 4th race doing nothing but hitting the automatic on RDSS2.1
Which uses Doc's actually paceline guidelines very well , we see

The low odds horse # 4 is downgraded off line 2 a similar distance and track
and competition level .

The winner # 6 is rated far and away #1 on RX3 and BLBL

Attachment 44986

Hi Bill

It is quoted from Mitch's post #5 in this thread.

Pook

[Lt1]

Hi guys. I was out most of the day so miss this one. From what I see of the pps Mitch is correct in that I would have most likely have used l2 or 4. Another thing Mitch pointed out is that in my handicapping turf races are the races which contain the most chances of going back past line 5. This is true here in the East when turf races begin in the spring. Some horses have raced on the turf in GP, Tampa Bay,and the Fairgrounds while others have been racing over dirt tracks at Aqu, Parx etc, while others take the winter off. All of these scenarios present various problems for the handicapper. All of us are free to use whatever method we feel comfortable with to include or exclude horses as contenders. As we have already seen there exist are wide divergence in approaches. Only our success or failure will lead to the correct one. At one time the Doc and other teaching members recommended not going past line 4 but in his one on one tapes Doc expanded to 5. Let's keep this thread rolling and continue to exchange our ideas and ask questions. As someone once told me the only dumb question is the one that's not ask.
Tim

[Bill V.]

HI POOK Sometimes I think people are playing that game telephone ,
All Doc's guidelines are in the follow ups and video and audio tapes People read and hear the guidelines but along the way the original message gets altered
Not faulting anybody. Doc clearly says in follow ups 70 to 88 to use the best speed rating / Preceptor, and or paceline indicator feature, of the last 3 comparable
He does say you could go back to line 5 but only if line 5 is recent and there are 2 intervening
( excused ) lines in the last 3.

Tim now is being a little more flexible. In turf races it's been suggested. to go back and open the window for the reasons mentioned.

But I can see no reason to use line 9 in a dirt race from Finger Lakes. Line 2 or line 4 would be
My choice but since RDSS picked line 2 I would agree with it.

Bill