Make Money With Early

[lone speed]

Using the pacelines from the RDSS screen, here are the screens from old Thoromation..

first screen to pop up




final screen


match up

#7 One O dominates the F1 call over the field from the last paceline....

[DaveEdwards]

Found it hard recently to get much time for posting, but if I may go back to the post by FTL at the bottom of page 1.

I've been thinking about the line selection for the winner 5 and am left with a few unresolved queries.

Line 1 shows that it is strong enough to take the lead, however, if this is the train of thought, would line 3 not be more appropriate at this gives us a better picture of how the horse is likely to perform when reaching the SC in the lead?

The reason I ask this is because the lone early can be something of a dilemma for me and line 1 for the 5 is exactly the sort of line to throw me. Line 1 shows the horse folding under pressure when facing a similar pace to line 3 where it ran a much stronger race, albeit uncontested early. So the (+) line for Line 1 now has me wondering if the horse is going off form or just doesn't like to come from behind when in claiming company.

Then in the actual race the horse then ran 2nd until approaching the end of the turn entering the stretch, so it both came from behind & was still in form.

The more I thought about this one the more confused I became. The video is still on the Penn site for anyone who would like to see the race.

A final point of interest, Bill, do you have different settings on RDSS? I just have it on default, but when using the same line selection as yourself I had the 5 being beaten by 16.9L as opposed to the 4.8L in your screen capture.
Ted, have I possibly got something set incorrectly?

Thanks all & again apologies for the (very) late response. Totally understandable if everyone has moved on from this race.

[Bill V.]

Cheers Dave

I never changed a setting This is what I have

[DaveEdwards]

Thanks Bill,

The only difference I have is that my Mode is set to default as opposed to Val4 Emulation.

Ted, if you read this would you please be able to shed any light on the differences?

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

Found it hard recently to get much time for posting, but if I may go back to the post by FTL at the bottom of page 1.

I've been thinking about the line selection for the winner 5 and am left with a few unresolved queries.

Line 1 shows that it is strong enough to take the lead, however, if this is the train of thought, would line 3 not be more appropriate at this gives us a better picture of how the horse is likely to perform when reaching the SC in the lead?

The reason I ask this is because the lone early can be something of a dilemma for me and line 1 for the 5 is exactly the sort of line to throw me. Line 1 shows the horse folding under pressure when facing a similar pace to line 3 where it ran a much stronger race, albeit uncontested early. So the (+) line for Line 1 now has me wondering if the horse is going off form or just doesn't like to come from behind when in claiming company.

Then in the actual race the horse then ran 2nd until approaching the end of the turn entering the stretch, so it both came from behind & was still in form.

The more I thought about this one the more confused I became. The video is still on the Penn site for anyone who would like to see the race.

A final point of interest, Bill, do you have different settings on RDSS? I just have it on default, but when using the same line selection as yourself I had the 5 being beaten by 16.9L as opposed to the 4.8L in your screen capture.
Ted, have I possibly got something set incorrectly?

Thanks all & again apologies for the (very) late response. Totally understandable if everyone has moved on from this race.

Hello Dave,

No problem with the late response. A late response is MUCH BETTER than no response!

Actually, if you re-read my post, you will see that I talked about line 3, but only to make it clear that "getting the distance" in not a problem for the winner. Many times when a horse shows having the lead and fading, the issue of stamina comes up. There are those who feel the distance may be the issue, so I noted line 3 for that reason.

Don't feel bad, early horses are a dilemma for most people. What we don't know about the last race is, how many early horses were there in the race that were trying for the lead? Even one more competitive early horse could put extra pressure on the leader causing it to use more energy early than it wants to. More than one more early type trying for the lead makes the leaders task that much harder. That's the reason the first thing to establish in today's race is, what other horse is capable of applying pressure to the eventual winner? Both Bill V and I determined there were no other horses that were capable of applying undue pressure on the eventual winner. So, for that reason, all we need to know today is this, is the #5 horse currently capable of leading the field? Since the last line is a "(+)" line, this is the line to use. It will tell us if the #5 is currently (not three races ago) capable of making the lead, since this is really all we need to establish.

As far as how the race actually unfolded, our job is hard enough without worrying about how a race unfolds. The best we can do is attempt to visualize the race ahead of time. There are numerous reasons for why the #5 did not go directly to the lead. Perhaps the jockey felt that he had enough horse to go by the horse in front of him at any time, so why go faster sooner than he had to, might be just one answer. The point to come away with is this, the horse did run early, although not in "need to lead" fashion, so the analysis that the #5 was an early horse was accurate.

I just want to add, that your question based on your review of the "chart" of the race is a good one. Many times I look at the charts and compare how the race actually ran to how I thought the horse(s) would run in my pre-race analysis.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

Thanks Bill,

The only difference I have is that my Mode is set to default as opposed to Val4 Emulation.

Ted, if you read this would you please be able to shed any light on the differences?

Dave,

The main difference between Val4 and Default mode is that in Val4 Mode, feet per beaten lengths at the final (and thus for the 3rd fraction) are reduced artificially such that 3rd fraction velocity is increased. This serves to elevate horses in various factors using F3 and Final Time who might otherwise be overlooked due to higher beaten lengths, but who faced fast enough Paces of Race and either made a decent move in some segment or ran evenly such that they could be judged fit and are also properly placed in today's competition.

In this Mode, total losers are none-the-less downgraded by the important advice for Validator to not use pacelines with beaten lengths greater than 7.75 (otherwise horses with truly bad finishes would look better than they deserve to be due to less than their full beaten lengths being used against them).

In Default Mode, all beaten lengths are values equally (8.333 feet per lengths) so a bad finish actually hurts the horse's numbers. BTW, I also think that feet per beaten length value is not as accurate as it could be, even with the sometimes imperfect data we have from the Result Charts. The optimal value for beaten lengths should be, IMO, one derived from the velocity of the front runner during each race segment (could be a different horse at each call, and they are gaining on, setting the pace or tracking the leader during each successive segment). This can be reduced to a feet per length value which will be different during each race segment.

Until I have that value as part of yet a (new) 3rd Mode, you should choose a consistent Mode and stick to it. Each different Mode (Val4 or Default) may upgrade or downgrade a real contender here or there over a longer set of races, but where horses are not adjusted out of the Top 3 of your major readouts (e.g. BL/BL or VDC), you will likely end up facing similar wagering choices using either Mode in a 'wagercapping' decision process (i.e. include or 'Hide' the top horse, then of the the following 2 in the Top 3, bet the greatest overlay as a second win bet).

Hope that helped, but if not, just let me know and I'll try further, no worries

Ted

[dlivery]

Thank-You for detailed explanation and prepared analyzed teachings of this race.

Dlivery

[Bill V.]

A final point of interest, Bill, do you have different settings on RDSS? I just have it on default, but when using the same line selection as yourself I had the 5 being beaten by 16.9L as opposed to the 4.8L in your screen capture.
Ted, have I possibly got something set incorrectly?

Dave
Can you tell me exactly what race and date horse # 5 you
are questioning
A race date and race # would be helpful

Ted 4.8 to 16.9 seems like an over adjustment doesn't it ?
something seems odd here


Bill

[Ted Craven]

Bill,

I am a a little confused as to which race and horse and line Dave is referring to. When he clarifies that, per your request above, I'll look at it in detail and respond.

Ted

[DaveEdwards]

Thank you FLT & Ted for both explanations.

FTL, hopefully I didn't come across as an aftertimer there (or a redboarder as I believe you guys may call it) with reference to the result. The race was raising more questions than answers for me, but it has to be said it won well enough from 2nd position.

The race I am referring to is Penn National 10th November Race 8.

The contenders and lines selected were:
1 - line 2
2 - line 1
3 - line 1
5 - line 1
7 - line 1

Thanks.