Newbie needs clarification!

[cigar]

I am new to RDSS software and have few questions your help would be greatly appreciated.

1. In RDSS are the races divided into three equal parts (F1, F2 and F3) or if F1 = 2 furlongs, F3 = 4/6 Furlongs and F3 = 4/6 Furlongs to Finish Line?

2. I am looking for a simple explanation for Factor W or Factor Win and Factor X and how you should use these factors when evaluating contenders? Listed below is what I was able to extract from reading the Follow Up.

3. I notice when I was evaluating the races in the Demo database DC and
VDC ranking produce some nice price winners. Is my explanation below of the two correct? Do you have a simplified explanation?

4. Is Total Energy a good indicator to identify the pace of Sprint races?

5. Is CPR a good indicator to identify pace in Route races?
FW: Factor W or Factor win (EP + SP) is the balance between Early and Late Energy-Velocity yield. Different formula for Sprint and Route is particularly effective when a horse runs a balanced race. (In RDSS, FW in sprints = (2x EPR)+LPR. In routes, FW = EPR + (2x LPR)).

FX: FX: Factor X is the weighted composite of 1^{st and 3rd fraction velocity or energy expenditure. (}The MPH FactorX (F1+F3) / 2 = RDSS FX = F1+F3 (same thing)). This factor is only significant in sprint races. My Opinion: it works for Sprint because it gives an indicator if the horse can carry it speed to the finish. Factor X, which is indeed the first and third fractions added together and divided by two.
DCL: Deceleration (F3/SC) – Deceleration is simply the ratio of Fraction 3 velocity to Second Call (SC) velocity.

VDC: (Velocity relative to Deceleration) is a fraction by fraction summing of deceleration relative to how fast the horse was going in that fraction, then ranked and merged with the Bottom Line ranking, such that you could have ties if the BL rank was lower but the V/DC rank was higher. Guy (and lots of others) were troubled that you could have ties in a factor ranking, but Doc wanted people to look at horses who did well at overcoming the pace of the race, even if they ranked lower on BL/BL which they would often do if they happened to have a lower Total Energy. If odds permit, such horses should be strongly considered for some kind of a wager.
I have seen stats from a several data keepers (Froggy comes to mind) who report that Top 2 and tie V/DC ranked horses win about 65% of the time, and Top 3 and ties 80%+. Of course, it varies by track, distance surface, etc. In my opinion, everybody should consult the V/DC rank in their analysis.
　
Thanks

[sureshotlink]

When starting off with the methodology I suggest using both primary and supplemental readouts when assessing any given contenders in a race.FactorW or average pace as Tom brohamer referred to it was once and still is a power readout in sprints and even routes but may not hold the same value in turf routes where LPR and HID are equally a powerful readout. The moral of the story is use all your tools until you fully digest the sartin method.

All the best,

[Ted Craven]

Cigar, welcome, sorry it took me a few days to get back to you on this.

1. in RDSS (and most velocity software), the race segments shown as F1, F2 and F3 velocity and energy (and subsequently compounded for various Factors) are, for sprints: F1 = 0 - 2 furlong point, F2 = 2f - 4f point, F3 = 4f point - end of race. For routes: F1 = 0 - 4f, F2 = 4f - 6f, F3 = 6f - end of race. In addition, we use the Second Call (SC) in some calculations, which is at the 4f point in sprints and the 6f point in routes.

2. In RDSS (and later Sartin programs) FW = sprints: SC * 2 + F3. In routes, SC + F3 * 2. FX is as you show it above. In longer sprints (e.g. 6f+) FX is indeed often a pertinent factor (i.e. there is enough of a distance in the F3 for that portion of the formula to represent some ability). It may be less pertinent in shorter sprints, although, as sureshotlink wisely points out above, you need to model what impact the different factors have at the different race distances, and at different tracks and surfaces.

The same advice can be given for use of FW - check your models for when it is more important than other times - I would not give an outright 'tip' on this.

3. Re VDC and DCL, your excerpted description of VDC is pretty good for starters, and there is really no more simple explanation, although I have written a LOT more about it and others have modelled it a LOT on these pages (check Rmath, Froggy, et al). Do a Google Site Search on 'VDC explanation' for many more discussions.

The problem with DCL is that it can be a simplistic measurement. Horses that are running the slowest to the 2nd Call usually then slow down the least in F3, thus get a good DCL rank. Conversely, horses who were running the fastest to the 2nd Call tend to slow down the most during F3. Thus,

The 'sweet spot' therefore, is the mix of horses who run well-enough to the 2nd call but then slow down relatively the least. This is precisely what V/DC measures ('deceleration relative to velocity'). In addition, VDC contains a measure of the relative Primary Line Score rank composed of teh 7 Primary Factors showing on the Primary Screen and rank summarized on the BLBL screen tot he left of the PLS Primary Line Score column. So, not only does V/DC measure relative deceleration to relative velocity (and internally, segment by segment) but it is also tempered by the sum of all the Primary Factors, which also happens to correlate fairly well to Total Energy.

4. Total Energy (TE) is a good measurement in ALL races - I am not sure if moreso in Sprints, again check your models. It is best used to winnow down contenders to the Top 5 and ties for the Win position (i.e. a long term model of TE will rarely show the winner ranked greater than 5th on TE, and when it does, a lot of that small subset is accounted for by Matchup considerations (the horse could dominate the first 2 fractions - see numerous examples in the RDSS Teaching Forum by FTL and Bill V).

In the BLBL screen, you will see a high co-relation between TE and BLBL ranks, though not a perfect one.

As for CPR (Composite Pace Rating, or Total Pace Rating), I don't know if it is more or less useful than Total Energy as an overall measurement in a given race category. Having no F1 component (CPR = EPR or 2nd Call + LPR or F3) it is inherhently less granular than Total Energy, and that would seem to be a disadvantage in mid or shorter routes (e.g. <= 6f) where early advantage is generically advantageous.

However - in all things - the applicability of the various factors to various race distances and categories is always subject to the Matchup of how horses interact with each other in the race according to their preferred Running Styles and demonstrated energy disbursement patterns (e.g. the Early/Late Differential sticks on the TPR + E/L screen). Also, whether there is tremendous early pressure on the sure-to-lead horses by others who want the very same position in the 'race-herd', perhaps thus setting up for an Other Than Early finisher with sufficient energy and proximity to the action by the top of stretch to take advantage of collapsing Earlies.

Again, please see numerous discussions in the RDSS Teaching Forum - AND every word in the Hat Check Forum on the Match Up by Jim Bradshaw and Richie P.

Hope that's not too much homework for the weekend

Are you going to Woodbine's opener tomorrow? I decided to hold off (yucky weather) until May 11, my Mum's birthday. Join us if you like!

cheers,

Ted

[cigar]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Cigar, welcome, sorry it took me a few days to get back to you on this.

1. in RDSS (and most velocity software), the race segments shown as F1, F2 and F3 velocity and energy (and subsequently compounded for various Factors) are, for sprints: F1 = 0 - 2 furlong point, F2 = 2f - 4f point, F3 = 4f point - end of race. For routes: F1 = 0 - 4f, F2 = 4f - 6f, F3 = 6f - end of race. In addition, we use the Second Call (SC) in some calculations, which is at the 4f point in sprints and the 6f point in routes.

2. In RDSS (and later Sartin programs) FW = sprints: SC * 2 + F3. In routes, SC + F3 * 2. FX is as you show it above. In longer sprints (e.g. 6f+) FX is indeed often a pertinent factor (i.e. there is enough of a distance in the F3 for that portion of the formula to represent some ability). It may be less pertinent in shorter sprints, although, as sureshotlink wisely points out above, you need to model what impact the different factors have at the different race distances, and at different tracks and surfaces.

The same advice can be given for use of FW - check your models for when it is more important than other times - I would not give an outright 'tip' on this.

3. Re VDC and DCL, your excerpted description of VDC is pretty good for starters, and there is really no more simple explanation, although I have written a LOT more about it and others have modelled it a LOT on these pages (check Rmath, Froggy, et al). Do a Google Site Search on 'VDC explanation' for many more discussions.

The problem with DCL is that it can be a simplistic measurement. Horses that are running the slowest to the 2nd Call usually then slow down the least in F3, thus get a good DCL rank. Conversely, horses who were running the fastest to the 2nd Call tend to slow down the most during F3. Thus,

The 'sweet spot' therefore, is the mix of horses who run well-enough to the 2nd call but then slow down relatively the least. This is precisely what V/DC measures ('deceleration relative to velocity'). In addition, VDC contains a measure of the relative Primary Line Score rank composed of teh 7 Primary Factors showing on the Primary Screen and rank summarized on the BLBL screen tot he left of the PLS Primary Line Score column. So, not only does V/DC measure relative deceleration to relative velocity (and internally, segment by segment) but it is also tempered by the sum of all the Primary Factors, which also happens to correlate fairly well to Total Energy.

4. Total Energy (TE) is a good measurement in ALL races - I am not sure if moreso in Sprints, again check your models. It is best used to winnow down contenders to the Top 5 and ties for the Win position (i.e. a long term model of TE will rarely show the winner ranked greater than 5th on TE, and when it does, a lot of that small subset is accounted for by Matchup considerations (the horse could dominate the first 2 fractions - see numerous examples in the RDSS Teaching Forum by FTL and Bill V).

In the BLBL screen, you will see a high co-relation between TE and BLBL ranks, though not a perfect one.

As for CPR (Composite Pace Rating, or Total Pace Rating), I don't know if it is more or less useful than Total Energy as an overall measurement in a given race category. Having no F1 component (CPR = EPR or 2nd Call + LPR or F3) it is inherhently less granular than Total Energy, and that would seem to be a disadvantage in mid or shorter routes (e.g. <= 6f) where early advantage is generically advantageous.

However - in all things - the applicability of the various factors to various race distances and categories is always subject to the Matchup of how horses interact with each other in the race according to their preferred Running Styles and demonstrated energy disbursement patterns (e.g. the Early/Late Differential sticks on the TPR + E/L screen). Also, whether there is tremendous early pressure on the sure-to-lead horses by others who want the very same position in the 'race-herd', perhaps thus setting up for an Other Than Early finisher with sufficient energy and proximity to the action by the top of stretch to take advantage of collapsing Earlies.

Again, please see numerous discussions in the RDSS Teaching Forum - AND every word in the Hat Check Forum on the Match Up by Jim Bradshaw and Richie P.

Hope that's not too much homework for the weekend

Are you going to Woodbine's opener tomorrow? I decided to hold off (yucky weather) until May 11, my Mum's birthday. Join us if you like!

cheers,

Ted

Thanks for the explanation, have lots more reading and modeling to do. I will miss the opening day however I will try to make it for the 11^th and join the celebration.

[cigar]

Originally Posted by sureshotlink

When starting off with the methodology I suggest using both primary and supplemental readouts when assessing any given contenders in a race.FactorW or average pace as Tom brohamer referred to it was once and still is a power readout in sprints and even routes but may not hold the same value in turf routes where LPR and HID are equally a powerful readout. The moral of the story is use all your tools until you fully digest the sartin method.

All the best,

Thanks, much appreciate your response.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by cigar

Thanks for the explanation, have lots more reading and modeling to do. I will miss the opening day however I will try to make it for the 11^th and join the celebration.

Great! Champions, 3rd floor, tables overlooking the back paddock area. Look for the folks with the computers

cheers,

Ted